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Author: Mohammed Momoh

  • Finally, Nigeria’s Poor Get a Makeover: A Critical Analysis of Tinubu’s application of the law of requisite varieties in the reduction of poverty in Nigeria

    Finally, Nigeria’s Poor Get a Makeover: A Critical Analysis of Tinubu’s application of the law of requisite varieties in the reduction of poverty in Nigeria

    • Finally, Nigeria’s Poor Get a Makeover: A Critical Analysis of Tinubu’s application of the law of requisite varieties in the reduction of poverty in Nigeri

     

    POLICY STATEMENT O30 BY THE INDEPENDENT MEDIA AND POLICY INITIATIVE (IMPI), ON:

    Finally, Nigeria’s Poor Get a Makeover: A Critical Analysis of Tinubu’s application of the law of requisite varieties in the reduction of poverty in Nigeria

    BACKGROUND

    The only economic reform programme undertaken by a Nigerian Government that the World Bank endorsed, as it recently did to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Economic Agenda, was the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) initiated during General Ibrahim Babangida’s military presidency (World Bank, 1984).

    In a 1988 report, two years after the commencement of SAP, the World Bank described it as a comprehensive economic reform effort that had successfully implemented a market-determined exchange rate, eliminated trade restrictions, and improved the business and agricultural environments.

    Despite this flowery description of the state of the Nigerian economy that year, the poverty rate increased within two years of its implementation to 47.8 per cent from 44 per cent in 1986. This meant that around 52 million people, out of an estimated 110 million population for that year, were living in poverty, an increase from the 38.4 million in 1986.

    The 1988 World Bank report strikes a note of déjà vu when compared to the state of the Nigerian economy in the aftermath of the implementation of the Renewed Hope Economic Agenda.  In the latest edition of the Nigeria Development Update (NDU) Report,  the World Bank acknowledged the positive outcomes of the federal administration’s macroeconomic reforms but notes that an estimated 139 million Nigerians may fall into poverty in 2025.

    This warning by the Bank has elicited two broad reactions from Nigerians: the first is from the community of very loud political opportunists who have exploited the estimated population of the poor to deride the reform agenda.

    The other response has been more sanguine. This is the class to which we unapologetically belong.

    To put the World Bank’s warning in context, we track back to the same Babangida SAP era when the 47.8 per cent increase in poverty rate had declined to 42.7 per cent by 1992.

    This is despite the defect that characterised the implementation of SAP back then. Regrettably, the succeeding government of late General Sani Abacha capitulated to public pressure to jettison SAP in 1993. By 1995, the poverty rate had risen again to 65.6 percent.

    Tracking Historical Poverty Prevalence in Nigeria:

    Empirically speaking, poverty prevalence has become somewhat integral to the Nigerian national economic space since the discovery and commercial exploitation of oil and gas in the country.

    This is evidenced in the huge number of the very poor in the population, which underlines the fact that poverty reduction efforts have defied policy deployments of all types over the years.

    The data are even more appalling when taken against the awkward scenario in which, despite increased growth in the economy as reflected in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), more Nigerians fall into the poverty bracket. This is a peculiar antithesis to the generally held principle of trickle-down beneficial economic impact on the population when GDP grows.

    Below is a summation of the damning historical data of the very poor in the midst of the growing GDP rate:

    In 1980, out of a population of 64.6 million, 28.1 percent were below the poverty line, which translates to 18.1 million people when the GDP was estimated at $64.20 billion. In 1985, the population had grown to 75.4 million, and the  GDP increased to $73.75billion, yet the percentage of the poor jumped from 28.1 per cent  to 46.3 per cent, translating to 34.9 million Nigerians.

    In 1990, the population increased to 86.6 million while the GDP nosedived to $54.04 billion as a result of a slide in global oil prices. The population of the poor also increased to about 39 million people. It rose to 59.3 million in 1995, out of a population of 98.9 million. More than 60 percent of Nigerians remained poor despite the GDP growing to $140.92 billion that year.

    The number of the poor increased  further in 1999 to 72.3 million, or 72 percent of the 109.3 million Nigerians. This was at a time when the country was witnessing economic decline as a result of its usually unplanned oil and gas boom and bust economic cycle. The GDP size that year declined to $59.15 billion. This was the nature of the national economy under the Olusegun Obasanjo and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar 1999 – 2007 presidency.

    In 2002, with the population increasing to 116.4million and the size of the economy expanding to $95 billion, the number of the poor rose to 86.0 million, about 88 per cent of the population, an indication that the Nigerian economic milieu was dominantly poverty-stricken despite increased GDP valuation.

    In 2003, however, with the GDP increasing to $104.74 billion, the number of poor marginally reduced to 80 million in a population of 137.2 million.

    By 2007, nonetheless, the nation’s GDP valuation exponentially increased to $278.26billion, but with little improvement in the population of the very poor, which got stuck at 80.6 million.

    The data of the Nigerian poor was worse in 2010 under the Presidency of Dr Goodluck Jonathan. With a $367billion GDP valuation and a population of 160 million, about 100million people were recorded to be living under the then $1.9 international poverty benchmark.

    This number was further exacerbated in 2011 with more than 112 million people in a population of 162.45 million, trapped in poverty, despite the GDP valuation increasing to $414.47billion at a real growth rate of 7.36 per cent.

    Perhaps, more incredulous was the data for 2015, when the GDP soared to $493 billion. After the country earned huge crude oil revenue from an average global Brent crude oil price of $100 per barrel and an average production of 2.2 million barrels per day, poverty level went northwards.

    In a population of 181.25 million, 125 million Nigerians were living in poverty, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). In this particular year, the capriciousness of the federal administration became evident, with the GDP growth rate falling from an average of 6-7 per cent in 2009 to 2.79 per cent.

    Year Population /GDP
    Population of the Poor:

    1990 – 86.6M > $54.04 > 39M

    1995 – 98.9M > $140.92 > 59.3M

    1999 – 109.3M > $59.15 > 72.3M

    2002 – 116.4M > $95B > 86M

    2003 – 137.2M > $104.74 > 80M

    2007- 153.3M > $278.26 > 80.6M

    2010- 160M > $367B > 100M

    2011 – 162.45M > $414.47 > 112M

    2015 – 181.25M > $493.03 > 125M

    2018 -196M > $404.60 > 89M

    We consider the management of the nation’s resources between the years 1999 and 2015 as imprudent, to say the least. It was a period characterised by waste and policy misalignment, ultimately resulting in the near-crash of the economy with its first recession in 25 years in 2016, with the economy contracting by 1.6 per cent despite a GDP value of $404.6 billion.

    Yet, we must submit that it was to the credit of the late President Muhammadu Buhari administration that the number of the very poor reduced to 89 million from the 125 million recorded in 2015. And a further decline to 79 million poor people in a population of 196 million, a 30.9 per cent poverty rate in 2018.

    Poverty – The Story of Nigeria’s Self-Inflicted Economic Malady

    Poverty did not just happen in the Nigerian economic sphere; it was consequent upon a deliberately concocted mix of inappropriate policies deployed by a ruling elite that had no idea of how to manage the huge revenue earned from crude oil exports to impact growth and development.

    As some other oil-exporting countries have found out, a dramatic increase in revenues from a product such as oil, when not managed prudently, produces what has come to be called the “Dutch disease.” This phenomenon has adverse repercussions in other sectors of the economy. The disease is most pernicious when the revenue increase that starts the problem reverses itself. The immobility of resource flows compounds the problem.

    It begins with the increase in revenues, which causes an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate as seen in the early 1980s. This changes the relative profitability of tradable vs. non-tradable goods (Non-tradable goods are those that are not traded internationally. They include items such as services where the demander and producer must be in the same location) (Jenkins, Kuo and Harberger, 2011) while tradable goods are physical products exchanged across borders (Lark, 2023).

    If oil revenues fall, as they did dramatically in Nigeria between 1980 and 1986, the economy is left with a highly capital-intensive production structure that can not pay for the new, higher level of imports.
    For Nigeria, the exchange rate appreciated fivefold, and the relative profitability of domestically produced and resourced goods fell. The country became a net importer of agricultural commodities, particularly food, after having been a major exporter of crops such as cocoa, palm oil, kernels, and rubber, and largely self-sufficient in food.

    Added to the “Dutch disease” was what came to be called the “Nigerian disease,” where so much labour was sucked out of the rural sector into non-tradable production by temporarily higher nominal wages in the urban sector, thus, agriculture was further constrained by the absence of sufficient male workers.

    Excessive mechanisation of agriculture by better-off farmers, due to subsidies and under-pricing of capital goods, further displaced labour in rural areas. The Misallocation of resources in agriculture also included the construction, but not completion, of huge irrigation dams, which drew capital into agriculture but produced few production benefits.

    Although the authorities attempted to compensate for the distorted domestic terms of trade through fertiliser and interest rate subsidies, these actions led to further inefficiencies in resource allocation, which tended to benefit large, better-off farmers but not small farmers who became poorer.

    Overall, the government’s investments were largely unprofitable, and few were in labour-intensive production, thereby creating relatively little employment.

    In fact, real wages in Nigeria, after rising sharply between 1972 and 1975, declined on average from 1976 to 1994, especially in urban areas and in the industrial sector, as the increase in the labour force exceeded demand.

    Thus, while the high oil revenues were potentially very positive, their management proved very destructive in terms of the negative impact these policies had on domestic production other than oil, and their limited impact on the generation of domestic employment and domestic income.

    Following the collapse of oil prices in 1982 and the rise in real interest rates, Nigeria experienced rising inflation, strict rationing of foreign exchange, and the possibility of debt rescheduling. This coincided with the rise of parallel markets so that an illegal, floating-rate parallel market coexisted with an official, fixed-rate market. This marked the irreversible unravelling of a once-upon-a-time prosperous economy.

    Despite the government’s large expenditures on the social sectors during the oil boom years, it failed to put in place policies to ensure sustainability, or an adequate safety net to protect the most vulnerable groups, whose poverty worsened even during the recovery years of 1985 to 1992.

    A critical examination of the growth rate of Nigeria’s GDP shows that there has been an appreciable upward trend, particularly in the present democratic political dispensation. For instance, according to CBN (2013), the annual growth rate of GDP in 2006 stood at 6.0 per cent, and this rose to 6.50 per cent in 2007. This trend declined in 2008 to 6.0 per cent and later jumped to 7.90 per cent in 2010. This development suffered a setback in 2011 and 2012 but made a reverse in 2013 and 2014, during which the growth rate of the economy stood at 6.90 per cent and 6.90 per cent respectively.

    Following the GDP rebasing by the President Jonathan administration in 2014, the annual growth rate later rose to 7.44 per cent (National Bureau of Statistics 2014). Looking at this appreciable economic growth in Nigeria during the year under review, one would have expected the rate of poverty in Nigeria to be at its minimum level but not so.

    Nigeria had emerged as a perennial jurisdiction of disproportional percentage of the poor and vulnerability relative to the larger population, with implications for a constrained economic-carrying capacity.

    This is because poverty dampens economic growth by creating a vicious circle, whereby high poverty levels lead to lower aggregate growth. In turn, low growth results in high levels of poverty (Osinowo, Sanusi, and Tolorunju, 2019).

    Will the estimated 139 million Nigerians falling into Poverty in Consequence of Tinubu’s Reform be a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?

    Tinubu’s prudent management style and attainment of macroeconomic stability, impactful macroeconomic policies influence and contribution to the attainment of rapid, sustainable economic growth aimed at poverty reduction in a variety of ways.

    1. By pursuing sound economic policies, policymakers send clear signals to the private sector. The extent to which policymakers can establish a track record of policy implementation will influence private sector confidence, which will, in turn, impact investment, economic growth, and poverty outcomes.

    2. Prudent macroeconomic policies can result in low and stable inflation. Inflation hurts the poor by lowering growth and by redistributing real incomes and wealth to the detriment of those in society least able to defend their economic interests. High inflation can also introduce high volatility in relative prices and make investment a risky decision.
    Nigeria’s annual inflation rate, which eased for the sixth month to 18.02 per cent in September 2025, marks the softest inflation reading since May 2022, mainly supported by foreign exchange stability and the harvest season. It sufficiently allays investors’ fear of negative real returns on their investment and provides the equivalent of an economic bulwark to the erosion of the monetary value of the earnings and revenue of average or low-cadre economic agents.

    In many particular ways, inflation plays a significant role in the World Bank’s template of increased estimates of poverty in a jurisdiction. In a period of persistent increase in prices, the correlation is that more people within that jurisdiction are expected to slide or fall into poverty because of the erosion of purchasing power and the inability of an increasing percentage of the people to afford basic economic sustenance items, especially food and energy.

    Thus, the high inflation environment that prevailed in Nigeria, peaking at 34.8 percent in December 2024, was a major input to the estimated 139 million Nigerians falling into poverty by the World Bank.
    Things have, however, changed over the last six months. From the high inflationary environment, the economy has transmuted to a vastly improved one. Now, we can safely assert that more Nigerians have been cycled out of poverty, which is consequent to the ongoing disinflation in the economic space.

    With a new set of data available to us, we can further improve on our Consumer Price Index (CPI) projection to submit that the inflation rate will decline to 14 percent by December 2025. This is a shift from the 17 percent we projected in our last Policy Statement. We continue to observe a strong determination by the federal administration to ensure a low-cost economic environment, even as it grapples with labour disputes on multiple fronts.

    Also associated with that projection was the possible reduction of the all-important Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), which, in our last Policy Statement, we projected to be reduced by a total of 200 basis points to 25.50 per cent. We still expect that the Monetary Policy authorities, the Central Bank of Nigeria, will, at its next meeting, have compelling reasons to, at the least, reduce the MPR by another 150 basis points.

    In addition, by keeping domestic and external debt at levels that can be serviced sustainably without unduly squeezing non-debt expenditure, policymakers can also ensure that adequate domestic resources are available to finance essential social programmes.

    This finds correlation in the projected reduction of the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio from 49.2 per cent in 2024 to 39.8 per cent in 2025, the first such projected decline in more than a decade; and the debt service-to-revenue ratio dropping significantly to levels not seen in many years, as contained in the same World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update report,

    ‘From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home.’

    Besides, inappropriate exchange rate policies distort the composition of growth by influencing the price of tradable versus non-tradable goods. Household survey data for a number of countries indicate that the poor tend to consume higher amounts of non-tradable goods while generating relatively more of their income from tradable goods (Sahn, Dorosh, and Younger, 1997).

    Hence, in addition to distorting trade and inhibiting growth, an overly appreciated exchange rate can impair the relative incomes and purchasing power of the poor.  The distortion associated with multiple foreign exchange windows has now been effectively corrected with a trail of appreciation of the Naira over the past seven months. Foreign exchange rates are now below the N1,500 mark as envisioned by the federal administration in its Medium Term Economic Framework (MTEF) for the 2025 budget.

    By building and maintaining an adequate level of net international reserves, a country can weather a temporary shock without having to reduce essential pro-poor spending. External shocks can be particularly detrimental to the poor because they can lower real wages, increase unemployment, reduce non-labour income, and limit private and net government transfers.

    In this way, the accretion to Nigeria’s foreign reserves shows a standing of up to $43 billion as of 11 October 2025.  Although we have reviewed how scenarios of economic growth have not impacted poverty reduction in Nigeria, yet, in most cases where inclusive growth occurs, poverty falls.

    Furthermore, since similar growth rates have different impacts on poverty reduction, we may conclude that growth is good for the poor, but it is not enough (an essential but not sufficient condition for poverty alleviation). In this instant case, we have observed the increasing momentum being recorded in the Nigerian economy with the GDP growing by 4.23 percent in the second quarter of 2025, a significant acceleration from the 3.13 percent growth in the first quarter.

    In this consideration, we reinforce the GDP projection we earlier made in our Policy Statement No. 28 that the GDP growth rate will increase by 5 percent by the end of 2025.

    When this is coupled with the CBN’s composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the month of September 2025 which stood at 54.0 points, signalling sustained expansion in aggregate economic activity for the 10th consecutive month, with increased record of employment activities by the private sector which is a principal indicator of poverty reduction, we can project that a significant reduction in poverty rate would be recorded by year end 2025.

    When all these macroeconomic elements are aggregated, what is apparent is that the federal administration had, more than anything else, committed itself to serious prudential management that was lacking in the years between 1999 and 2015. We note that the federal administration has made an increase in GDP growth, disinflation, and unemployment key variables in its poverty reduction approaches

    The Law of Requisite Varieties and the Tinubu Administration’s Poverty-Reduction Initiatives:

    We note the historical efforts to reduce poverty by various administrations which include direct interventions like the Directorate for Food, Roads and Rural Infrastructures (DFRRI) 1986 – rural areas feeder roads, rural water supply and rural electrification. National Directorate of Employment (NDE) 1986 – unemployed youths training, finance and guidance, and Better Life Programme (BLP) 1987 – rural women self-help and rural development programmes, skill acquisition and health care.
    Others are: People’s Bank of Nigeria (PBN) 1989 – encouraging savings and credit facilities for the underprivileged in rural and urban areas. Community Banks (CB) 1990 – micro enterprises in urban areas, banking facilities. Family Support Programme (FSP) 1994 – Health care delivery, child welfare, and youth development for families in rural areas. Family Economic Advancement Programme (FEAP) 1997 – credit facilities to support the establishment of cottage industries in rural areas (Oladeji and Abiola, 1998).

    There was also the National Poverty Eradication Programme (NAPEP), which was the central pillar of the Obasanjo administration’s poverty eradication programme. Like other programmes before it, it reflected very little on pro-poor schemes, leading to poorly designed money-guzzling schemes like ‘Keke NAPEP’ which hardly contributed to reducing poverty in the long-term.

    The Muhammadu Buhari administration profiled a more detailed National Social Investment Programme (NSIP) in 2016 to address poverty and socio-economic inequality. Institutionalised by law in May 2023, NSIP consisted of four core programmes: The N-Power, an initiative to provide job training, education, and stipends to unemployed young Nigerians between the ages of 18 and 35; Government Enterprise and Empowerment Programme (GEEP), a micro-lending programme that provided interest- and collateral-free loans to entrepreneurs and small business owners. It had several sub-initiatives: TraderMoni, which provided small loans to petty traders and artisans. MarketMoni, aimed at market women and FarmerMoni which supported small-scale farmers and agricultural workers; Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) Programme, a social safety net providing a monthly stipend to the most vulnerable and poorest households to help with basic needs and National Home-Grown School Feeding Programme (NHGSFP), an initiative aimed at improving school enrolment by providing free, nutritious meals to millions of primary school pupils. It also stimulated the local economy by sourcing ingredients from nearby farmers and engaging community cooks.

    In the context of multidimensional poverty, however, we note that certain common indices and factors are used to classify the different forms of poverty at a given time and place. Irrespective of the yardstick used to quantify poverty, it has been identified that it is caused by several factors and can only be reduced through a multi-pronged policy approach.

    It is in this context that we frame this poverty reduction review around the Law of Requisite Variety. This law explains why the amount of variety in a system must match the amount of variety in its environment to achieve control and stability. In other words, if an environment is changing faster than the managers’ ability to respond, the consequences will be chaotic. It is within this framework that we review the multiplicity of approaches that are being undertaken and deployed by Tinubu’s federal administration to reduce poverty.

    Growth by itself may not be long-lasting and sustainable. We can, however, attest to the implementation of a variegated poverty-reduction strategy that is pivoted on rapid but sustained economic growth and institutional pre-conditions which combine pro-growth and pro-poor policies that enable the poor to participate in opportunities, and also contribute to future growth by the Tinubu-led federal administration.

    The Tinubu Administration’s Bouquet of Social Interventions

    • Subsidised access to dialysis: One of the federal administration’s poverty reduction programmes is the approval of a subsidy to ease the burden of kidney dialysis for Nigerians by slashing the cost per session from ₦50,000 to ₦12,000. The subsidy is already being implemented in federal hospitals across the six geopolitical zones.

    • Agricultural loans and microfinance for farmers and small businesses: The federal government is to begin disbursing interest-free loans to smallholder farmers and micro-business owners across Nigeria before the end of 2025. The initiative is part of the Government Enterprise and Empowerment Programme (GEEP) being implemented under the Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation.

    The loans of up to ₦100,000 per beneficiary will be offered under FarmerMoni, a scheme designed to support small-scale farmers engaged in poultry, aquaculture, livestock rearing, and crop production.

    Beneficiaries will also enjoy a six-month grace period before repayment begins, allowing them to acquire critical inputs such as fertilisers, veterinary drugs, and farm tools. These are not grants but repayable loans designed to help Nigerians grow their businesses, join the formal financial system, and create jobs (Blessing, 2025).

    • Monthly Pension Increase: All retired federal employees under the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS)  are to receive a N32,000 monthly pension increase. The sum will be paid to each of them from a N758 billion bond approved by President Bola Tinubu for clearing all outstanding pension liabilities.

    The President okayed the bond to ensure that the retirees also benefited from the National  Minimum Wage Amendment Act 2024 and Consequential Adjustments.  The N32,000 is the baseline every retiree in the education and health sectors, as well as security and the Armed Forces on the CPS will earn monthly, irrespective of his or her accumulated savings (Chiejina, 2025).

    • Tertiary Institutions Staff Support Fund (TISSF): The federal government has launched an interest-free loan scheme to provide financial support and professional development for staff of tertiary institutions across Nigeria. The scheme is called the Tertiary Institutions Staff Support Fund (TISSF). It is described as a strategic platform to empower both academic and non-academic staff (Alausa, 2025).

    • Creative Economy Development Fund (CEDF): Nigeria’s federal government, through the Ministry of Arts, Culture and Creative Economy, has officially launched Phase 2 of the CEDF, featuring a brand-new user-friendly interface that simplifies access to funding. Youth-led and creative businesses across Nigeria from video gaming, film, music, animation, fashion, publishing, visual arts, culinary arts, and tourism, can now apply for grants, loans, and equity investments up to $100,000 to scale their operations, innovate, and contribute to sustainable economic growth.

    It focused on mature creative projects seeking $100,000 or more, with project incubation and acceleration activities underway, and disbursements expected to start from January 2026. The first phase laid the groundwork for IP-backed financing, opportunity awareness, and capacity building across creative sectors such as film, digital arts, and cultural tourism.

    • Scrapping of Telecom Levy: As part of engendering a low-cost telecommunication access, the Federal Government of Nigeria has scrapped the 5 per cent excise duty on telecom services. The levy, which was initially suspended and now removed, is set to ease the pressure of voice and data service costs on over 170 million Nigerian subscribers.

    • Increasing the Reach of the Home-Grown School Feeding Programme: The federal government has set a target of reaching 20 million children through the Home-Grown School Feeding Programme by 2026. It is described as both an educational investment and a national security strategy (Shaibu, 2025)

    • Five million New Beneficiaries of RHGEEP: The Federal Government is in the process of enrolling five million new beneficiaries under the third phase of its Government Enterprise and Empowerment Programme, known as Renewed Hope GEEP (RHGEEP 3.0). The new phase, which was flagged off in Abuja, is designed to broaden financial inclusion and expand empowerment initiatives, particularly for women and youth, with a target of reaching five million Nigerians by 2027.

    • Innovation Development and Effectiveness in the Acquisition of Skills: The federal government has announced plans to train more than 30,000 youths under the second cohort of the Innovation Development and Effectiveness in the Acquisition of Skills (IDEAS) and Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) initiative. The second phase of the project, which began on August 25, covered 36 skill areas. It is being implemented by the Federal Ministry of Education with funding from a World Bank-supported IDEAS project designed to strengthen Nigeria’s TVET system (Ikpefan, 2025).

    • Jobs for 20 million Nigerian Youths: The Federal Government has inaugurated a new national skills programme aimed at connecting 20 million young Nigerians to jobs, training, and entrepreneurship opportunities by 2030.

    • Cash Transfer for 15 million Nigerians: The government has revived its temporary cash transfer programme. This initiative aims to provide financial relief to 15 million vulnerable Nigerians and their families, helping them manage the rising living costs.

    • Digital Access and Livelihood Initiative (DALI): The Digital Access and Livelihood Initiative (DALI) is a demand-driven national talent pipeline designed to link foundational and work-readiness training directly to guaranteed jobs or enterprise pathways. The platform unifies government, private sector leaders, development partners, and the boundless energy of the nation’s youth under a single banner.

    Conclusion

    We must, at this juncture, acknowledge the speed, consistency, and coordination of fiscal and monetary policies to attain macroeconomic stability by the Tinubu-led federal administration. This is not an everyday accomplishment for an economy that has historically depended on the positive but unpredictable movements of global crude oil prices to achieve any form of macroeconomic stability. All related publicly circulated data sets have validated the fact that the macroeconomic stability currently recorded was enabled as essentially a process of deliberate calibration of economic and financial policies.
    This implies the inclusivity inherent in the macroeconomic gains. By extension, we can submit that going forward, an expansion in economic activities will reflect on the positive economic standing of Nigeria’s poor. This holds a huge promise for millions of the poor and vulnerable who are currently and those who would be lifted out of poverty. This is in addition to the millions of poor that would be salvaged from a state of economic and financial paralysis as a result of the multiple social intervention programmes that continue to handhold and walk the economically vulnerable out of the labyrinth of poverty.

    Omoniyi M. Akinsiju, PhD
    Chairman,
    Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI)
    October, 2025

  • It is empty outburst,’’ CSO blasts Northern group’s ultimatum on NSA

    It is empty outburst,’’ CSO blasts Northern group’s ultimatum on NSA

    *It is empty outburst,’’ CSO blasts Northern group’s ultimatum on NSA

    A Civil Society Organisation (CSO), *Inclusive Citizens’ Advancement Network (Inc-CAN), has condemned a Northeast youth group for issuing a 7-day ultimatum to President Bola Tinubu to probe the Office of National Security Adviser (ONSA).

    It described the action as an empty outburst coming at a time the NSA, Nuhu Ribadu has just got Nigeria de-listed from FATF’s grey list.

    In a statement yesterday in Abuja by Inc-CAN’s Executive Director, Mrs. Esther Nwankpa, and interim general secretary, Olufemi Adeniyi, the group described the Northeast youths’ ultimatum on the NSA as hollow and misplaced.

    It maintained that the youths’ stance was totally against popular view among many Nigerians that Nuhu Ribadu has worked tirelessly to be an invaluable asset in President Bola Tinubu’s counter-terrorism agenda.

    She maintained that Ribadu’s presence in the President Bola Tinubu administration has continued to prove that absolute integrity, patriotism and commitment to the greater good were enduring virtues of public officers.

    Commenting further, Mrs. Esther Nwankpa believes that the campaign of calumny against the Nuhu Ribadu is being driven by envious and mischievous interests who are increasingly scared by the towering height of the former pioneer EFCC’s chairman who has continued to prove his mettle in the scheme of things.

    She accused the unnamed persons of ploys to distract and discredit ongoing national security reforms of the ONSA which she said had proved effective in tackling emerging security threats across the country.

    ‘’We find it regrettable that a certain amorphous group, particularly from the North East region where the NSA hails from, have chosen to pursue fruitless venture inspired by a pull-him-down syndrome. It is crystal clear even to the blind that Nuhu Ribadu has fully committed to using his space to advancing the growth and development of the country in all ramifications.

    ‘’It is even unthinkable and unfortunate that the so-called youth group chose a time the nation is still gripped by the euphoria of the recent FATF de-listing Nigeria and celebrating the efforts of Nuhu Ribadu to achieve it in synergy with other key figures in the federal government.

    ‘’The big news of the historical de-listing of Nigeria from the grey list of money laundering and terrorism financing nations by the world’s foremost standards-setting body, Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is still reverberating.

    ‘’The ONSA under Nuhu Ribadu’s effective watch provided the critical strategic oversight and ensured coordination among various security and intelligence agencies. FATF’s historic announcement, widely considered as a major milestone in Nigeria’s two-year hard journey towards corporate governance transparency, is still trending.

    ‘’Today, there is a major opinion shift in the global community on Nigeria’s economic reform, institutional integrity and global financial credibility. Any discussion on this development is incomplete without mentioning Nuhu Ribadu.

    ‘’To formally remove Nigeria from the list of jurisdictions under increased monitoring, commonly referred to as the ‘grey list, is one of the best things to happen to the nation.

    ‘’The FATF’s decision to remove Nigeria from the grey list is a strong affirmation of its reform trajectory and the growing integrity of our country’s financial and counter-terrorism architecture, reflecting a clear policy direction and the coordinated efforts of key national institutions.

    ‘’The National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC), Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU), Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), etc, synergized reforms that addressed the FATF’s concerns regarding anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing (AML/CTF)’’, Nwankpa said.

    She further disclosed that Nuhu Ribadu is certainly one of the most valuable figures in President Bola Tinubu’s vision of a $1 trillion economy which the FATF’s de-listing has now made more achievable than ever. The envy is palpable.

    ‘’With restored global financial credibility, Nigeria is now better positioned to attract the foreign investment needed to develop infrastructure, create jobs, and lift millions out of poverty.

    ‘’The FATF’s delisting has opened doors of job opportunities hitherto closed against young unemployed Nigerians including the ignorant and jobless so-called North east youth coalition hired by opposition politicians to run down the NSA’’, she said.

    Inc-CAN reiterated that Nuhu Ribadu had served Nigeria with utmost distinction, as a former anti-corruption czar and now as National Security Adviser, noting that his integrity and rare commitment to fight insecurity and threats to national stability remained unquestionable and unequalled.

    ’We urge the Federal Government, the national security community, and Nigerians to ignore the outbursts of the misguided youth group who have nothing meaningful to contribute to the nation’’, she said.

    Continuing, the civil society organization seized the occasion of the epoch-making delisting from FATF grey list to laud and celebrate womanhood for the significantly pivotal roles played by the Chief Executive Officer/Director General, Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU), Hajiya Hafsat Bakari and spearheading the process to the satisfaction of all national institutions involved.

    Mrs. Nwankpa said her organization had resolved to nominate the NFIU boss for the next round of national honours award. According to her, all agencies involved in the process leading to the delisting unanimously agreed that Hajiya Hafsat Bakari took the job as if her life depended on it. No wonder President Bola Tinubu praised her to the high heavems.

    ‘’NFIU could not have done better judging from how Hajiya Bakari faced the job. She ensured that her agency led the coordination of all national efforts and implemented key reforms to address notable deficiencies in the country’s anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) framework. She courageously led from the front, leaving no stone unturned to the admiration of all. In fact, she has made me proud as a Nigerian woman’’, Mrs. Nwankpa said.

    End.

  • POLICY STATEMENT O30 BY THE INDEPENDENT MEDIA AND POLICY INITIATIVE (IMPI), ON:

    POLICY STATEMENT O30 BY THE INDEPENDENT MEDIA AND POLICY INITIATIVE (IMPI), ON:

    POLICY STATEMENT O30 BY THE INDEPENDENT MEDIA AND POLICY INITIATIVE (IMPI), ON:

    Finally, Nigeria’s Poor Get a Makeover: A Critical Analysis of Tinubu’s application of the law of requisite varieties in the reduction of poverty in Nigeria

    BACKGROUND

    The only economic reform programme undertaken by a Nigerian Government that the World Bank endorsed, as it recently did to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Economic Agenda, was the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) initiated during General Ibrahim Babangida’s military presidency (World Bank, 1984).

    In a 1988 report, two years after the commencement of SAP, the World Bank described it as a comprehensive economic reform effort that had successfully implemented a market-determined exchange rate, eliminated trade restrictions, and improved the business and agricultural environments.

    Despite this flowery description of the state of the Nigerian economy that year, the poverty rate increased within two years of its implementation to 47.8 per cent from 44 per cent in 1986. This meant that around 52 million people, out of an estimated 110 million population for that year, were living in poverty, an increase from the 38.4 million in 1986.

    The 1988 World Bank report strikes a note of déjà vu when compared to the state of the Nigerian economy in the aftermath of the implementation of the Renewed Hope Economic Agenda.  In the latest edition of the Nigeria Development Update (NDU) Report,  the World Bank acknowledged the positive outcomes of the federal administration’s macroeconomic reforms but notes that an estimated 139 million Nigerians may fall into poverty in 2025.

    This warning by the Bank has elicited two broad reactions from Nigerians: the first is from the community of very loud political opportunists who have exploited the estimated population of the poor to deride the reform agenda.

    The other response has been more sanguine. This is the class to which we unapologetically belong.

    To put the World Bank’s warning in context, we track back to the same Babangida SAP era when the 47.8 per cent increase in poverty rate had declined to 42.7 per cent by 1992.

    This is despite the defect that characterised the implementation of SAP back then. Regrettably, the succeeding government of late General Sani Abacha capitulated to public pressure to jettison SAP in 1993. By 1995, the poverty rate had risen again to 65.6 percent.

    Tracking Historical Poverty Prevalence in Nigeria:

    Empirically speaking, poverty prevalence has become somewhat integral to the Nigerian national economic space since the discovery and commercial exploitation of oil and gas in the country.

    This is evidenced in the huge number of the very poor in the population, which underlines the fact that poverty reduction efforts have defied policy deployments of all types over the years.

    The data are even more appalling when taken against the awkward scenario in which, despite increased growth in the economy as reflected in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), more Nigerians fall into the poverty bracket. This is a peculiar antithesis to the generally held principle of trickle-down beneficial economic impact on the population when GDP grows.

    Below is a summation of the damning historical data of the very poor in the midst of the growing GDP rate:

    In 1980, out of a population of 64.6 million, 28.1 percent were below the poverty line, which translates to 18.1 million people when the GDP was estimated at $64.20 billion. In 1985, the population had grown to 75.4 million, and the  GDP increased to $73.75billion, yet the percentage of the poor jumped from 28.1 per cent  to 46.3 per cent, translating to 34.9 million Nigerians.

    In 1990, the population increased to 86.6 million while the GDP nosedived to $54.04 billion as a result of a slide in global oil prices. The population of the poor also increased to about 39 million people. It rose to 59.3 million in 1995, out of a population of 98.9 million. More than 60 percent of Nigerians remained poor despite the GDP growing to $140.92 billion that year.

    The number of the poor increased  further in 1999 to 72.3 million, or 72 percent of the 109.3 million Nigerians. This was at a time when the country was witnessing economic decline as a result of its usually unplanned oil and gas boom and bust economic cycle. The GDP size that year declined to $59.15 billion. This was the nature of the national economy under the Olusegun Obasanjo and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar 1999 – 2007 presidency.

    In 2002, with the population increasing to 116.4million and the size of the economy expanding to $95 billion, the number of the poor rose to 86.0 million, about 88 per cent of the population, an indication that the Nigerian economic milieu was dominantly poverty-stricken despite increased GDP valuation.

    In 2003, however, with the GDP increasing to $104.74 billion, the number of poor marginally reduced to 80 million in a population of 137.2 million.

    By 2007, nonetheless, the nation’s GDP valuation exponentially increased to $278.26billion, but with little improvement in the population of the very poor, which got stuck at 80.6 million.

    The data of the Nigerian poor was worse in 2010 under the Presidency of Dr Goodluck Jonathan. With a $367billion GDP valuation and a population of 160 million, about 100million people were recorded to be living under the then $1.9 international poverty benchmark.

    This number was further exacerbated in 2011 with more than 112 million people in a population of 162.45 million, trapped in poverty, despite the GDP valuation increasing to $414.47billion at a real growth rate of 7.36 per cent.

    Perhaps, more incredulous was the data for 2015, when the GDP soared to $493 billion. After the country earned huge crude oil revenue from an average global Brent crude oil price of $100 per barrel and an average production of 2.2 million barrels per day, poverty level went northwards.

    In a population of 181.25 million, 125 million Nigerians were living in poverty, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). In this particular year, the capriciousness of the federal administration became evident, with the GDP growth rate falling from an average of 6-7 per cent in 2009 to 2.79 per cent.

    Year Population /GDP
    Population of the Poor:

    1990 – 86.6M > $54.04 > 39M

    1995 – 98.9M > $140.92 > 59.3M

    1999 – 109.3M > $59.15 > 72.3M

    2002 – 116.4M > $95B > 86M

    2003 – 137.2M > $104.74 > 80M

    2007- 153.3M > $278.26 > 80.6M

    2010- 160M > $367B > 100M

    2011 – 162.45M > $414.47 > 112M

    2015 – 181.25M > $493.03 > 125M

    2018 -196M > $404.60 > 89M

    We consider the management of the nation’s resources between the years 1999 and 2015 as imprudent, to say the least. It was a period characterised by waste and policy misalignment, ultimately resulting in the near-crash of the economy with its first recession in 25 years in 2016, with the economy contracting by 1.6 per cent despite a GDP value of $404.6 billion.

    Yet, we must submit that it was to the credit of the late President Muhammadu Buhari administration that the number of the very poor reduced to 89 million from the 125 million recorded in 2015. And a further decline to 79 million poor people in a population of 196 million, a 30.9 per cent poverty rate in 2018.

    Poverty – The Story of Nigeria’s Self-Inflicted Economic Malady

    Poverty did not just happen in the Nigerian economic sphere; it was consequent upon a deliberately concocted mix of inappropriate policies deployed by a ruling elite that had no idea of how to manage the huge revenue earned from crude oil exports to impact growth and development.

    As some other oil-exporting countries have found out, a dramatic increase in revenues from a product such as oil, when not managed prudently, produces what has come to be called the “Dutch disease.” This phenomenon has adverse repercussions in other sectors of the economy. The disease is most pernicious when the revenue increase that starts the problem reverses itself. The immobility of resource flows compounds the problem.

    It begins with the increase in revenues, which causes an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate as seen in the early 1980s. This changes the relative profitability of tradable vs. non-tradable goods (Non-tradable goods are those that are not traded internationally. They include items such as services where the demander and producer must be in the same location) (Jenkins, Kuo and Harberger, 2011) while tradable goods are physical products exchanged across borders (Lark, 2023).

    If oil revenues fall, as they did dramatically in Nigeria between 1980 and 1986, the economy is left with a highly capital-intensive production structure that can not pay for the new, higher level of imports.
    For Nigeria, the exchange rate appreciated fivefold, and the relative profitability of domestically produced and resourced goods fell. The country became a net importer of agricultural commodities, particularly food, after having been a major exporter of crops such as cocoa, palm oil, kernels, and rubber, and largely self-sufficient in food.

    Added to the “Dutch disease” was what came to be called the “Nigerian disease,” where so much labour was sucked out of the rural sector into non-tradable production by temporarily higher nominal wages in the urban sector, thus, agriculture was further constrained by the absence of sufficient male workers.

    Excessive mechanisation of agriculture by better-off farmers, due to subsidies and under-pricing of capital goods, further displaced labour in rural areas. The Misallocation of resources in agriculture also included the construction, but not completion, of huge irrigation dams, which drew capital into agriculture but produced few production benefits.

    Although the authorities attempted to compensate for the distorted domestic terms of trade through fertiliser and interest rate subsidies, these actions led to further inefficiencies in resource allocation, which tended to benefit large, better-off farmers but not small farmers who became poorer.

    Overall, the government’s investments were largely unprofitable, and few were in labour-intensive production, thereby creating relatively little employment.

    In fact, real wages in Nigeria, after rising sharply between 1972 and 1975, declined on average from 1976 to 1994, especially in urban areas and in the industrial sector, as the increase in the labour force exceeded demand.

    Thus, while the high oil revenues were potentially very positive, their management proved very destructive in terms of the negative impact these policies had on domestic production other than oil, and their limited impact on the generation of domestic employment and domestic income.

    Following the collapse of oil prices in 1982 and the rise in real interest rates, Nigeria experienced rising inflation, strict rationing of foreign exchange, and the possibility of debt rescheduling. This coincided with the rise of parallel markets so that an illegal, floating-rate parallel market coexisted with an official, fixed-rate market. This marked the irreversible unravelling of a once-upon-a-time prosperous economy.

    Despite the government’s large expenditures on the social sectors during the oil boom years, it failed to put in place policies to ensure sustainability, or an adequate safety net to protect the most vulnerable groups, whose poverty worsened even during the recovery years of 1985 to 1992.

    A critical examination of the growth rate of Nigeria’s GDP shows that there has been an appreciable upward trend, particularly in the present democratic political dispensation. For instance, according to CBN (2013), the annual growth rate of GDP in 2006 stood at 6.0 per cent, and this rose to 6.50 per cent in 2007. This trend declined in 2008 to 6.0 per cent and later jumped to 7.90 per cent in 2010. This development suffered a setback in 2011 and 2012 but made a reverse in 2013 and 2014, during which the growth rate of the economy stood at 6.90 per cent and 6.90 per cent respectively.

    Following the GDP rebasing by the President Jonathan administration in 2014, the annual growth rate later rose to 7.44 per cent (National Bureau of Statistics 2014). Looking at this appreciable economic growth in Nigeria during the year under review, one would have expected the rate of poverty in Nigeria to be at its minimum level but not so.

    Nigeria had emerged as a perennial jurisdiction of disproportional percentage of the poor and vulnerability relative to the larger population, with implications for a constrained economic-carrying capacity.

    This is because poverty dampens economic growth by creating a vicious circle, whereby high poverty levels lead to lower aggregate growth. In turn, low growth results in high levels of poverty (Osinowo, Sanusi, and Tolorunju, 2019).

    Will the estimated 139 million Nigerians falling into Poverty in Consequence of Tinubu’s Reform be a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?

    Tinubu’s prudent management style and attainment of macroeconomic stability, impactful macroeconomic policies influence and contribution to the attainment of rapid, sustainable economic growth aimed at poverty reduction in a variety of ways.

    1. By pursuing sound economic policies, policymakers send clear signals to the private sector. The extent to which policymakers can establish a track record of policy implementation will influence private sector confidence, which will, in turn, impact investment, economic growth, and poverty outcomes.

    2. Prudent macroeconomic policies can result in low and stable inflation. Inflation hurts the poor by lowering growth and by redistributing real incomes and wealth to the detriment of those in society least able to defend their economic interests. High inflation can also introduce high volatility in relative prices and make investment a risky decision.
    Nigeria’s annual inflation rate, which eased for the sixth month to 18.02 per cent in September 2025, marks the softest inflation reading since May 2022, mainly supported by foreign exchange stability and the harvest season. It sufficiently allays investors’ fear of negative real returns on their investment and provides the equivalent of an economic bulwark to the erosion of the monetary value of the earnings and revenue of average or low-cadre economic agents.

    In many particular ways, inflation plays a significant role in the World Bank’s template of increased estimates of poverty in a jurisdiction. In a period of persistent increase in prices, the correlation is that more people within that jurisdiction are expected to slide or fall into poverty because of the erosion of purchasing power and the inability of an increasing percentage of the people to afford basic economic sustenance items, especially food and energy.

    Thus, the high inflation environment that prevailed in Nigeria, peaking at 34.8 percent in December 2024, was a major input to the estimated 139 million Nigerians falling into poverty by the World Bank.
    Things have, however, changed over the last six months. From the high inflationary environment, the economy has transmuted to a vastly improved one. Now, we can safely assert that more Nigerians have been cycled out of poverty, which is consequent to the ongoing disinflation in the economic space.

    With a new set of data available to us, we can further improve on our Consumer Price Index (CPI) projection to submit that the inflation rate will decline to 14 percent by December 2025. This is a shift from the 17 percent we projected in our last Policy Statement. We continue to observe a strong determination by the federal administration to ensure a low-cost economic environment, even as it grapples with labour disputes on multiple fronts.

    Also associated with that projection was the possible reduction of the all-important Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), which, in our last Policy Statement, we projected to be reduced by a total of 200 basis points to 25.50 per cent. We still expect that the Monetary Policy authorities, the Central Bank of Nigeria, will, at its next meeting, have compelling reasons to, at the least, reduce the MPR by another 150 basis points.

    In addition, by keeping domestic and external debt at levels that can be serviced sustainably without unduly squeezing non-debt expenditure, policymakers can also ensure that adequate domestic resources are available to finance essential social programmes.

    This finds correlation in the projected reduction of the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio from 49.2 per cent in 2024 to 39.8 per cent in 2025, the first such projected decline in more than a decade; and the debt service-to-revenue ratio dropping significantly to levels not seen in many years, as contained in the same World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update report,

    ‘From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home.’

    Besides, inappropriate exchange rate policies distort the composition of growth by influencing the price of tradable versus non-tradable goods. Household survey data for a number of countries indicate that the poor tend to consume higher amounts of non-tradable goods while generating relatively more of their income from tradable goods (Sahn, Dorosh, and Younger, 1997).

    Hence, in addition to distorting trade and inhibiting growth, an overly appreciated exchange rate can impair the relative incomes and purchasing power of the poor.  The distortion associated with multiple foreign exchange windows has now been effectively corrected with a trail of appreciation of the Naira over the past seven months. Foreign exchange rates are now below the N1,500 mark as envisioned by the federal administration in its Medium Term Economic Framework (MTEF) for the 2025 budget.

    By building and maintaining an adequate level of net international reserves, a country can weather a temporary shock without having to reduce essential pro-poor spending. External shocks can be particularly detrimental to the poor because they can lower real wages, increase unemployment, reduce non-labour income, and limit private and net government transfers.

    In this way, the accretion to Nigeria’s foreign reserves shows a standing of up to $43 billion as of 11 October 2025.  Although we have reviewed how scenarios of economic growth have not impacted poverty reduction in Nigeria, yet, in most cases where inclusive growth occurs, poverty falls.

    Furthermore, since similar growth rates have different impacts on poverty reduction, we may conclude that growth is good for the poor, but it is not enough (an essential but not sufficient condition for poverty alleviation). In this instant case, we have observed the increasing momentum being recorded in the Nigerian economy with the GDP growing by 4.23 percent in the second quarter of 2025, a significant acceleration from the 3.13 percent growth in the first quarter.

    In this consideration, we reinforce the GDP projection we earlier made in our Policy Statement No. 28 that the GDP growth rate will increase by 5 percent by the end of 2025.

    When this is coupled with the CBN’s composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the month of September 2025 which stood at 54.0 points, signalling sustained expansion in aggregate economic activity for the 10th consecutive month, with increased record of employment activities by the private sector which is a principal indicator of poverty reduction, we can project that a significant reduction in poverty rate would be recorded by year end 2025.

    When all these macroeconomic elements are aggregated, what is apparent is that the federal administration had, more than anything else, committed itself to serious prudential management that was lacking in the years between 1999 and 2015. We note that the federal administration has made an increase in GDP growth, disinflation, and unemployment key variables in its poverty reduction approaches

    The Law of Requisite Varieties and the Tinubu Administration’s Poverty-Reduction Initiatives:

    We note the historical efforts to reduce poverty by various administrations which include direct interventions like the Directorate for Food, Roads and Rural Infrastructures (DFRRI) 1986 – rural areas feeder roads, rural water supply and rural electrification. National Directorate of Employment (NDE) 1986 – unemployed youths training, finance and guidance, and Better Life Programme (BLP) 1987 – rural women self-help and rural development programmes, skill acquisition and health care.
    Others are: People’s Bank of Nigeria (PBN) 1989 – encouraging savings and credit facilities for the underprivileged in rural and urban areas. Community Banks (CB) 1990 – micro enterprises in urban areas, banking facilities. Family Support Programme (FSP) 1994 – Health care delivery, child welfare, and youth development for families in rural areas. Family Economic Advancement Programme (FEAP) 1997 – credit facilities to support the establishment of cottage industries in rural areas (Oladeji and Abiola, 1998).

    There was also the National Poverty Eradication Programme (NAPEP), which was the central pillar of the Obasanjo administration’s poverty eradication programme. Like other programmes before it, it reflected very little on pro-poor schemes, leading to poorly designed money-guzzling schemes like ‘Keke NAPEP’ which hardly contributed to reducing poverty in the long-term.

    The Muhammadu Buhari administration profiled a more detailed National Social Investment Programme (NSIP) in 2016 to address poverty and socio-economic inequality. Institutionalised by law in May 2023, NSIP consisted of four core programmes: The N-Power, an initiative to provide job training, education, and stipends to unemployed young Nigerians between the ages of 18 and 35; Government Enterprise and Empowerment Programme (GEEP), a micro-lending programme that provided interest- and collateral-free loans to entrepreneurs and small business owners. It had several sub-initiatives: TraderMoni, which provided small loans to petty traders and artisans. MarketMoni, aimed at market women and FarmerMoni which supported small-scale farmers and agricultural workers; Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) Programme, a social safety net providing a monthly stipend to the most vulnerable and poorest households to help with basic needs and National Home-Grown School Feeding Programme (NHGSFP), an initiative aimed at improving school enrolment by providing free, nutritious meals to millions of primary school pupils. It also stimulated the local economy by sourcing ingredients from nearby farmers and engaging community cooks.

    In the context of multidimensional poverty, however, we note that certain common indices and factors are used to classify the different forms of poverty at a given time and place. Irrespective of the yardstick used to quantify poverty, it has been identified that it is caused by several factors and can only be reduced through a multi-pronged policy approach.

    It is in this context that we frame this poverty reduction review around the Law of Requisite Variety. This law explains why the amount of variety in a system must match the amount of variety in its environment to achieve control and stability. In other words, if an environment is changing faster than the managers’ ability to respond, the consequences will be chaotic. It is within this framework that we review the multiplicity of approaches that are being undertaken and deployed by Tinubu’s federal administration to reduce poverty.

    Growth by itself may not be long-lasting and sustainable. We can, however, attest to the implementation of a variegated poverty-reduction strategy that is pivoted on rapid but sustained economic growth and institutional pre-conditions which combine pro-growth and pro-poor policies that enable the poor to participate in opportunities, and also contribute to future growth by the Tinubu-led federal administration.

    The Tinubu Administration’s Bouquet of Social Interventions

    • Subsidised access to dialysis: One of the federal administration’s poverty reduction programmes is the approval of a subsidy to ease the burden of kidney dialysis for Nigerians by slashing the cost per session from ₦50,000 to ₦12,000. The subsidy is already being implemented in federal hospitals across the six geopolitical zones.

    • Agricultural loans and microfinance for farmers and small businesses: The federal government is to begin disbursing interest-free loans to smallholder farmers and micro-business owners across Nigeria before the end of 2025. The initiative is part of the Government Enterprise and Empowerment Programme (GEEP) being implemented under the Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation.

    The loans of up to ₦100,000 per beneficiary will be offered under FarmerMoni, a scheme designed to support small-scale farmers engaged in poultry, aquaculture, livestock rearing, and crop production.

    Beneficiaries will also enjoy a six-month grace period before repayment begins, allowing them to acquire critical inputs such as fertilisers, veterinary drugs, and farm tools. These are not grants but repayable loans designed to help Nigerians grow their businesses, join the formal financial system, and create jobs (Blessing, 2025).

    • Monthly Pension Increase: All retired federal employees under the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS)  are to receive a N32,000 monthly pension increase. The sum will be paid to each of them from a N758 billion bond approved by President Bola Tinubu for clearing all outstanding pension liabilities.

    The President okayed the bond to ensure that the retirees also benefited from the National  Minimum Wage Amendment Act 2024 and Consequential Adjustments.  The N32,000 is the baseline every retiree in the education and health sectors, as well as security and the Armed Forces on the CPS will earn monthly, irrespective of his or her accumulated savings (Chiejina, 2025).

    • Tertiary Institutions Staff Support Fund (TISSF): The federal government has launched an interest-free loan scheme to provide financial support and professional development for staff of tertiary institutions across Nigeria. The scheme is called the Tertiary Institutions Staff Support Fund (TISSF). It is described as a strategic platform to empower both academic and non-academic staff (Alausa, 2025).

    • Creative Economy Development Fund (CEDF): Nigeria’s federal government, through the Ministry of Arts, Culture and Creative Economy, has officially launched Phase 2 of the CEDF, featuring a brand-new user-friendly interface that simplifies access to funding. Youth-led and creative businesses across Nigeria from video gaming, film, music, animation, fashion, publishing, visual arts, culinary arts, and tourism, can now apply for grants, loans, and equity investments up to $100,000 to scale their operations, innovate, and contribute to sustainable economic growth.

    It focused on mature creative projects seeking $100,000 or more, with project incubation and acceleration activities underway, and disbursements expected to start from January 2026. The first phase laid the groundwork for IP-backed financing, opportunity awareness, and capacity building across creative sectors such as film, digital arts, and cultural tourism.

    • Scrapping of Telecom Levy: As part of engendering a low-cost telecommunication access, the Federal Government of Nigeria has scrapped the 5 per cent excise duty on telecom services. The levy, which was initially suspended and now removed, is set to ease the pressure of voice and data service costs on over 170 million Nigerian subscribers.

    • Increasing the Reach of the Home-Grown School Feeding Programme: The federal government has set a target of reaching 20 million children through the Home-Grown School Feeding Programme by 2026. It is described as both an educational investment and a national security strategy (Shaibu, 2025)

    • Five million New Beneficiaries of RHGEEP: The Federal Government is in the process of enrolling five million new beneficiaries under the third phase of its Government Enterprise and Empowerment Programme, known as Renewed Hope GEEP (RHGEEP 3.0). The new phase, which was flagged off in Abuja, is designed to broaden financial inclusion and expand empowerment initiatives, particularly for women and youth, with a target of reaching five million Nigerians by 2027.

    • Innovation Development and Effectiveness in the Acquisition of Skills: The federal government has announced plans to train more than 30,000 youths under the second cohort of the Innovation Development and Effectiveness in the Acquisition of Skills (IDEAS) and Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) initiative. The second phase of the project, which began on August 25, covered 36 skill areas. It is being implemented by the Federal Ministry of Education with funding from a World Bank-supported IDEAS project designed to strengthen Nigeria’s TVET system (Ikpefan, 2025).

    • Jobs for 20 million Nigerian Youths: The Federal Government has inaugurated a new national skills programme aimed at connecting 20 million young Nigerians to jobs, training, and entrepreneurship opportunities by 2030.

    • Cash Transfer for 15 million Nigerians: The government has revived its temporary cash transfer programme. This initiative aims to provide financial relief to 15 million vulnerable Nigerians and their families, helping them manage the rising living costs.

    • Digital Access and Livelihood Initiative (DALI): The Digital Access and Livelihood Initiative (DALI) is a demand-driven national talent pipeline designed to link foundational and work-readiness training directly to guaranteed jobs or enterprise pathways. The platform unifies government, private sector leaders, development partners, and the boundless energy of the nation’s youth under a single banner.

    Conclusion

    We must, at this juncture, acknowledge the speed, consistency, and coordination of fiscal and monetary policies to attain macroeconomic stability by the Tinubu-led federal administration. This is not an everyday accomplishment for an economy that has historically depended on the positive but unpredictable movements of global crude oil prices to achieve any form of macroeconomic stability. All related publicly circulated data sets have validated the fact that the macroeconomic stability currently recorded was enabled as essentially a process of deliberate calibration of economic and financial policies.
    This implies the inclusivity inherent in the macroeconomic gains. By extension, we can submit that going forward, an expansion in economic activities will reflect on the positive economic standing of Nigeria’s poor. This holds a huge promise for millions of the poor and vulnerable who are currently and those who would be lifted out of poverty. This is in addition to the millions of poor that would be salvaged from a state of economic and financial paralysis as a result of the multiple social intervention programmes that continue to handhold and walk the economically vulnerable out of the labyrinth of poverty.

    Omoniyi M. Akinsiju, PhD
    Chairman,
    Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI)
    October, 2025

  • ‎IMPI revises inflation rate projection to 14% from 17% for December

    ‎IMPI revises inflation rate projection to 14% from 17% for December

    1. ‎IMPI revises inflation rate projection to 14% from 17% for Decembe

      ‎
      ‎The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) is projecting that headline inflation will drop further to 14 percent before the end of the year in the aftermath of the recent decline to 18.02 percent.

      The think tank, had in its September Policy Statement 029, projected that Nigeria’s inflation rate will trend down to 17 percent from the 20.12 percent recorded in August 2025. It turned out that Inflation data released by the National Bureau of Statistics was near the 17 percent projected by IMPI.

      ‎In a policy statement signed by its Chairman, Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI noted that the drop in inflation in the last six months would have had some impact on the current poverty data.
      ‎
      ‎It said: “In many particular ways, inflation plays a significant role in the World Bank’s template of increased estimates of poverty in a jurisdiction. In a period of persistent increase in prices, the correlation is that more people within that jurisdiction are expected to slide or fall into poverty because of the erosion of purchasing power and the inability of an increasing percentage of the people to afford basic economic sustenance items, especially food and energy.
      ‎
      ‎”Thus, the high inflation environment that prevailed in Nigeria, peaking at 34.8 percent in December 2024, was a major input to the estimated 139 million Nigerians falling into poverty by the World Bank.
      ‎
      ‎”Things have, however, changed over the last six months. From the high inflationary environment, the economy has transmuted to a vastly improved one. Now, we can safely assert that more Nigerians have been cycled out of poverty, which is consequent to the ongoing disinflation in the economic space.”
      ‎
      ‎
      ‎”With a new set of data available to us, we can further improve on our Consumer Price Index (CPI) projection to submit that the inflation rate will decline to 14 percent by December 2025. This is a shift from the 17 percent we projected in our last Policy Statement. We continue to observe a strong determination by the federal administration to ensure a low-cost economic environment, even as it grapples with labour disputes on multiple fronts.
      ‎
      ‎The think tank also expects the Central Bank to reduce the benchmark interest rate by at least 150 basis points during its next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
      ‎
      ‎”Also associated with that projection was the possible reduction of the all-important Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), which, in our last Policy Statement, we projected to be reduced by a total of 200 basis points to 25.50 per cent. We still expect that the Monetary Policy authorities, the Central Bank of Nigeria, will, at its next meeting, have compelling reasons to, at the least, reduce the MPR by another 150 basis points, it added.
      ‎
      ‎
      ‎

  • CSOs cimmend Tinubu, NSO on security, back America’s disclaimer on Christians genocide in Nigeria

    CSOs cimmend Tinubu, NSO on security, back America’s disclaimer on Christians genocide in Nigeria

     

     

    Civil Society Organisations (CSOs), the *Inclusive Citizens Advancement Network (Inc-CAN)* and *Concerned Professionals Congress (CPC)* have given a thumps-up to President Bola Tinubu for leading Nigeria excellently well at the just-ended AQABA Process Heads of State high-level counter terrorism meeting in Rome, Italy.

    The CSOs in a review of the event particularly praised the delegation comprising some of the major drivers of the national security architecture, i. e, the minister of defence, Badaru Abubakar and the National Security Adviser (NSA) Nuhu Ribadu, who was accompanied by the national coordinator, National Counter Terrorism Center (NCTC), Major General Adamu Garuba Laka, and the director general, National Intelligence Agency (NIA),
    Ambassador Mohammed Mohammed.

    Also in the team were the minister of state for Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu, and other senior government officials.

    U.S President Donald Trump’s senior envoy, Massad Boulos’ dismissal of claims of Christian genocide in Nigeria which was another major positive fallout of the trip came in reaction to Republican Senator Tom Cruz’s ‘’Nigeria Religious Freedom Accountability Bill of 2025, a move to designate Nigeria as a ‘’Country of Particular Concern’’ (CPC) and impose sanctions on Nigerian officials which has already raised eyebrows among sections of the Nigerian polity.

    The swift dismissal of the contentious claims by Massad Boulos has introduced a sharp twist to the development thereby dousing the tension raised on the issue in the country.

    The concerned CSOs, in a joint statement in Abuja by Inc-CAN’s convener, Mr. Emeka Nwankpa and the Northern Regional Rapporteur of Concerned Professionals Congress (CPC), Baba Kasim Baba, hailed President Tinubu’s presentation at the event, describing it as ‘’brilliantly watertight’’ on Nigeria’s current highly impactful counter-terrorism initiatives.

    According to the CSOs, the swift dismissal by Pres.Trump’s senior advisor on Arab and African Affairs, Massad Boulous, of alleged state-sponsored Christian genocide in Nigeria threw the civil society community into a spontaneous frenzy, especially his valid assertion that terrorist attacks in Nigeria affected both Christians and Muslims equally if not more for the Muslims.

    Mr. Massad Boulous’ comments during his visit to President Tinubu on the sidelines of the Aqaba conference came amid growing calls by some U.S lawmakers urging the American government to designate Nigeria as a ‘’Country of Particular Concern’’ (CPC) over unproved genocidal claims. But the White House has yet to respond officially.

    Speaking to journalists after meeting with President Tinubu, Senior Envoy Massad Boulous maintained that terrorist attacks in Nigeria cut across ethnic and religious lines.

    ‘’Those who know the terrain well know that terrorism has no colour, no religion, no tribe. People of all religions and all trbes are dying as a result of terrorist attacks. Boko Haram and ISIS have actually killed more Muslims than Christians.

    ‘’People are suffering from all backgrounds. This is not specifically targeted at one group or the other. It’s not something that can be said to target any particular group’’, he said.

    He said that under President Tinubu, Nigeria had recorded tremendous progress in security across its diverse ethnic and religious groups that had coexisted for several decades.

    Mr. Emeka Nwankpa, in the statement by the CSOs endorsed the senior U.S presidential envoy’s assertion, describing it as a “frank and straightforward” commentary on Nigeria’s complex terrorism conundrum, noting that his assessment perfectly reflected the current reality in the country.

    ‘’The Senior U.S presidential advisor could not have put it any better. The truth is that purveyors of the genocide claims are either ignorant or dishonest or both. Nigeria’s complex security dynamics is far below the acceted United Nations definition of a genocide. There’s no correlation whatsoever.

    ‘’The mass killings being cited are not targeted against any specific religious group. Therefore drumming up claims of genocide is dumb and divisive. Besides, coming from external forces at this time that our defense forces are winning the war on terror is suspect. These are people that don’t want Nigeria’s unity. Our fellow patriotic Nigerians should be wary of them.

    ‘’They portray extreme ignorance of Nigeria’s internal dynamics where multifaceted conflicts, and not religion, are driven by criminality, ethnic rivalries, land disputes, etc.

    ‘’Since 2009, the sectarian Boko Haram has waged a relentless senseless war against the Nigerian state, not against any religion but mostly Muslims as its victims. Claims of one-sided persecution are just a simplistic narrative which the foreign commentators must understand before jumping into conclusion.

    ‘’To push these conflicts as evidence of Christian genocide as U.S Republican Senator Cruz and his cohorts in the American Congress are doing clearly distorts the reality and advertises their collective chicanery’’, Nwankpa said.

    ‘’In our view, a major danger is the often uninformed and sometimes mischievous media which present Boko Haram as fighters of Islam whereas they are a ragtag group alongside ISWAP and their bandit groups which are despised by both Muslims and Christians alike.

    ‘’Whoever opposes them, regardless of faith, is marked as enemy hence their offer mindless, violent and indiscriminate bombings of mosques, churches and killing of Muslims and Christians alike. To call this ugly spectacle as anti-Christian is pure propaganda.

    ‘’It is necessary to contextualize the issue. President Tinubu in May 2023 inherited a nation blighted by this brutal Islamist insurgency led by Boko Haram and its offshoot-Islamic State West African Province (ISWAP).

    ‘’The president’s crack team of capable military and security chiefs working with ex-EFCC chairman, NSA Nuhu Ribadu, and the NCTC national coordinator has designed and executed layers of new counter terrorism measures, and simultaneously prioritizing fights against Boko Haram in the northwest, farmer-herder conflicts nationwide, Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), and oil robbers in the south-south.

    ‘’Our gallant troops have sustained operational successes securing every inch of the Nigerian space through improved counter-terrorism, anti-banditry, anti-kidnapping, maritime security, and joint internal operations on the battlefield.

    ‘’The NCTC’s Multi-Agency Anti-Kidnapping Fusion Cell (MAAKFC) which was built in partnership with U.K’s National Crime Agency has made a difference as several kidnap victims are being rescued incrementally to the satisfaction of many affected Nigerian families.

    ‘’In real terms, the coordination by the NCTC-ONSA under Maj Gen Adamu Laka, in synergy with Defence Headquarters (DHQ) under Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Gwabin Musa leading the military chiefs, have since changed the narrative.

    ‘’We may not yet be where we want, but we are definitely not where we were. The new measures have continued to change the narrative in just a little over two years of President Tinubu in the saddle.

    ‘’There’s no perfect security anywhere, but the good news is that the country is getting safer notably the once-dreaded Abuja-Kaduna highway and the Birnin Gwari axis. Today, U.K has lifted its travel advisory to her citizens plying that axis as a result of highly improved security.

    ‘’Also, free movement of citizens, goods and services are being increasingly recorded in parts of the country where insecurity had hitherto imposed zero movement.

    ‘’This year’s AQABA meeting in Rome is viewed against Nigeria’s internal security outlook showing gradual rise, according to a recent Channels Television’s Nigeria Security Perception Index for September 2025 which indicated 50 percent respondents in Northern Nigeria and 57 percent in Southern Nigeria saying security was improving.

    ‘’Across the six geopolitical zones, the perception index rose between February and September. The North East improved from 52 to 56 percent, the South South climbed from 55 to 57 percent, while the North Central moved from 39 to 47 percent.

    ‘’The South West maintained a steady perception of 61 percent. Analysts attribute the progress to intensified coordination of operations by the nation’s security and military forces bouyed by precision intelligence-led strikes, and reductions in large-scale oil theft and mass kidnappings recorded in recent months.

    ‘’However, security forecasts for the last quarter of 2025 point to potential challenges. The Nigeria Security Outlook for Q4 2025 projects that insurgent attacks may persist in the Lake Chad Basin, while opportunistic assaults on schools, highways and religious institutions could occur.

    ‘’There are also concerns that bandit networks in the Northwest were adapting to recent military offensives. Spiked kidnap risks are envisaged in December due to anticipated increased travel and citizens’ migratory movements, with ransom kidnapping posing a key risk factor. But overall, analysts believe there’s hope in the horizon for a safer, more secure and stable polity.

    ‘’For example, the forces have neutralised over 1,600 terrorists, over 124, 000 fighters and their families surrendered, over 11,000 weapons and 252, 000 ammunitions confiscated in the northeast.

    ‘’The arrest of IPOB Commander, Ifeanyi Eze Okorienta, widely known as ‘’Gentle De Yahoo’’ has brought some normalcy to the southeast where the sit-at-home order are beginning to eclipse. More arrests of notorious criminals are still being made as several others are neutralised incrementally by our forces’’, said Nwankpa.

    Commenting, NSA Nuhu Ribadu has continued to express his satisfaction over the successes while restating President Tinubu’s commitment to ridding the country of every trace of criminality. He further disclosed that terrorism-related deaths had tumbled down from 2, 600 a month before May 2023 to a fewer than 200 today.

    In late August, he announced the rescue of 128 hostages in Zamfara State while DHQ also disclosed that security forces in 2024 killed over 3,100 terrorists, arrested 2,500 suspects, and freed more than 1,600 kidnapped victims.

    The Nigeria Police Force reported the rescue of 1,581 hostages and arresting over 30,000 suspects for various offences.

    Nuhu Ribadu further disclosed that between May 2023 and early 2025, more than 13,500 terrorists and armed criminals were neutralised, while over 124,000 insurgents and their families surrendered.

    Also, over 11,000 were rescued, and nearly 3,843 illegal refineries – key to the funding of insurgent and criminal activities – were dismantled nationwide. Significantly, the numbers point to a strategic shift to taking the fire into the enemy camp.
    Inside ONSA sources said that the new innovative MAAKFC has been a game changers in dismantling the enemy camps through the cell which collates actionable intelligence to coordinate rescue missions, track financial trails and impound same.

    Since its debut in December 2024, MAAKFC which is a crack collection of highly trained personnel of the military, para-military, intelligence, police, judicial and allied agencies, has achieved an 80% success rate in combating kidnap across the multi-million naira industry in the terror financing value chain. MAAKFC has successfully dismantled the entire architecture of the sophisticated kidnap business.

    Copious evidence of the gains are emergent, from settlements and communities in Southern Kaduna, long plagued by killings and abductions such as Birnin Gwari which is now in relative peace. Also in Zamfara State, a location once locked down by bandit warlords, the story has changed dramatically.

    The DHQ has almost concluded plans to open a another camp in Tsafe for its Operation Safe Corridor (OPSC), ten years after establishing its pioneer camp in Mallam Sidi in Gombe State for its Deradicalization, Rehabilitation and Reintegration (DRR) program for surrendered ex-Boko Haram fighters.

    In the Southeast, the unknown gunmen conundrum which had once paralysed daily business life with mind-boggling violence and Monday sit-at-home orders, have beaten a quick retreat in the volatile region owing to DHQ’s multi-pronged aggressive military operations in the zone.

    In the Northwest where banditry has killed more than 12,000 people and displaced entire farming communities, the counter-terrorism gains are also visible.

    The spectacular arrests of the Ansaru terrorist kingpins, Mahmud Muhammad Usman, the self-styled “Emir of Ansaru” his deputy Mahmud al-Nigeri (Malam Mahmuda), elimination of notorious warlords like Ali Kachalla, Halilu Sububu, and Boderi, alongside mass surrenders under the non-kinetic initiatives code-named the “Kaduna Model”, have shot down mass abductions.

    Though isolated attacks against soft targets occur as last kicks of a dying horse, the frequency and scale of kidnappings have since reduced.

    Senior Presidential Envoy Massad Boulous, an American-Lebanese citizen whose son is married to President Trump’s daughter commended President Bola Tinubu’s administration for increasing security efforts in volatile regions, noting that recent security improvements showed that the government’s measures were impacting positively.

    “The Nigerian government has recently taken additional measures and put more resources in those areas. We’ve seen some improvements in recent weeks. We appreciate those measures, and we definitely look forward to more of those,” he said.
    He praised Nigeria’s long-standing record of religious coexistence, saying that its diversity should continue to be a source of strength rather than division.

    “Nigeria is a country in which all sorts of religious groups and other groups, ethnic and tribal, are living together in harmony for centuries. The population is split 50-50 between Christians and Muslims, so this has never been a serious religious issue and should not be,” he said.

    He called for continued partnership between Nigeria and the United States to eliminate terrorism and sustain peace across all regions.

  • Standing With the Bello Family – Justice Must Never Be Cheapened*

    Standing With the Bello Family – Justice Must Never Be Cheapened*

    1. *Standing With the Bello Family – Justice Must Never Be Cheapened

     

    The decision to grant Maryam Sanda a Presidential pardon is indeed heartbreaking and deeply troubling. It sends a dangerous message – that justice in Nigeria can be overturned by sympathy or influence, rather than truth and accountability.

    Mr Abu Hanan Assalafy, a Youth, human rights advocate and Convener, Justice for All Network, a Non- Governmental Organisation has noted.

    He said that the
    family of the late Bilyaminu Bello has every right to feel betrayed.

    After years of court proceedings – from the High Court to the Supreme Court – justice was finally served through a transparent legal process. Reversing that decision through a pardon not only disrespects the memory of the deceased but also undermines the integrity of our judicial system.

    No family deserves to relive the trauma of losing a loved one in such a cruel manner, only to later watch the person responsible walk free under the guise of “mercy.”

    Mercy should never come at the expense of justice, he said in a statement.

    A society that excuses such a crime teaches others that there are no real consequences for violence and murder.

    The Bello family’s statement is not driven by vengeance, but by a desire for fairness – a principle that should guide any nation that values human life and moral order.

    Their pain is the nation’s pain, and their call for justice is a reminder that no one’s life should be considered expendable.

    As the family rightly said, ultimate justice belongs to God – but as a people, we must ensure that our earthly justice is not mocked by politics or emotion.

    Standing with the Bello family today is standing with justice, truth, and the sanctity of human life, the activist explained.

    The pressure group is operating under three hashtags- #JusticeForBilyaminu, #SayNoToInjustice and #NigeriaDeservesBetter.

    It wants Nigerians of conscience and good will to speak out on the raging controversy sparked off by the recent presidential pardon granted to Maryam Sanda after sentenced to death for killing her late husband, Bilyaminu Bello.

  • ‎Fubara, lawmakers’ position vindicate President Tinubu’s emergency rule declaration-TMSG

    ‎Fubara, lawmakers’ position vindicate President Tinubu’s emergency rule declaration-TMSG

    ‎Fubara, lawmakers’ position vindicate President Tinubu’s emergency rule declaration-TMS

     

    ‎
    ‎The Tinubu Media Support Group (TMSG) has described the newfound harmony between Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara and the state’s House of Assembly as a vindication of President Bola Tinubu’s timely proclamation of the now-ended six-month emergency rule in the state.
    ‎
    ‎In a statement signed by its Chairman Emeka Nwankpa and Secretary Dapo Okubanjo, TMSG noted that public assurances by the Governor and the lawmakers of a good working relationship are a far cry from their previous hard-line positions.
    ‎
    It said: ‎”We have noticed how some political elements, including those qualified to be regarded as elder statesmen, had dismissed President Bola Tinubu’s announcement of an end to the six months of emergency rule in Rivers State as nothing to celebrate.
    ‎
    ‎”It is, however, a good development that the governor and members of the House of Assembly, whose actions led to the presidential proclamation, appear to have now seen things from a different perspective.
    ‎
    ‎”From what the lawmakers said when they resumed plenary to Governor Fubara’s broadcast, it is crystal clear that there is a new spirit of harmony and conviviality between the two once-feuding parties that hitherto could not see eye-to-eye thereby grounding peace, order and governance in the state.
    ‎
    ‎”This new development, for us, is a far cry from the politically toxic situation that compelled President Tinubu to declare s state of emergency. It is a major pushback from the tipping moment of looming crisis when both parties held on to their entrenched positions despite a court ruling.
    ‎
    ‎”So it beggars belief that opposition elements, including a former Vice President who should know, claimed that there was no basis for the declaration of emergency rule in a state holding a chunk of the country’s oil infrastructure.
    ‎
    ‎”We invite Nigerians to note how Governor Fubara, in the course of the state-wide broadcast, acknowledged President Tinubu’s noble role in successfully brokering a peace process which led to all the parties accepting to bury the hatchet in the interest of the good people of the oil-rich state.
    ‎
    ‎”The implication of that comment is that it was within the period of the emergency rule that peace was brokered contrary to the position of those who insisted that there was no basis for the Presidential proclamation.
    ‎
    ‎”We however express hope that, as the governor said, hard lessons have been learnt and that all the parties would put the politics behind them to ensure that peace and stability truly return to Rivers State”
    ‎
    ‎The group also urged all the political stakeholders who were fanning the crisis to allow peace to reign in the state.
    ‎
    ‎
    ‎
    ‎End
    ‎
    ‎
    ‎

  • Think Tank ‎projects 17% inflation rate by year-end, urges CBN to ease benchmark rate

    Think Tank ‎projects 17% inflation rate by year-end, urges CBN to ease benchmark rate

    Think Tank
    ‎projects 17% inflation rate by year-end, urges CBN to ease benchmark rat
    ‎

    ‎The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) is projecting that Nigeria’s headline inflation will further drop to 17 per cent by December 2025 after consecutive declines that took the figure to 20.12 per cent in August.
    ‎
    ‎The think tank also expects the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to reduce the monetary policy rate (MPR) at its next meeting in response to five consecutive month-on-month drops in inflation.
    ‎
    ‎In its latest policy statement, signed by its Chairman, Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI explained that the country is experiencing a lengthy period of disinflation.
    ‎
    ‎It said: “We have observed how some critics have dismissed the decline in the inflation rate as being of no consequence to the people, insisting dismissively that prices have not changed in any way to affect the mass of the Nigerian people.
    ‎
    ‎”We consider this an expression of the intention not to acknowledge the federal administration’s positive strides. Empirically speaking, the Nigerian economy is now in a disinflationary dispensation. Disinflation is a temporary slowing of the pace of price inflation and is used to describe instances when the inflation rate has reduced marginally over the short term.
    ‎
    ‎”Nigeria recorded a rare disinflation in 2025, with inflation falling from 24.5 per cent in January to 20.12 per cent in August, about a 17.5 per cent drop, the sharpest mid-year slowdown in over a decade. An analysis of 10 years of data shows that, unlike 2020–2024, when inflation accelerated, 2025 stands out alongside 2017 and 2018 as one of the few disinflationary years.
    ‎
    ‎”Accordingly, Nigeria’s inflation story in 2025 is taking an unusual turn because, for the first time in nearly a decade, the country is witnessing a meaningful and sustained slowdown in consumer prices. In relative terms, that is a 17.5 per cent reduction compared to the January level, a pace of disinflation rarely seen in Nigeria’s modern economic history.
    ‎
    ‎”So far, we have witnessed how the inflation rate, instead of climbing, has steadily declined month after month (except for a brief uptick in March), ending August below 21 per cent, the first time in 16 months that headline inflation had fallen that low. ”
    ‎
    ‎IMPI also identified factors which its analysts insist are responsible for the decline in headline inflation in recent months.
    ‎
    ‎”Three key factors are shaping Nigeria’s inflation deceleration in 2025: CBN has kept rates at 27.50 per cent, slowing credit demands and speculative forex activities; stable foreign exchange rate due to increased foreign exchange inflow into the country through oil, remittances, and non-oil export earnings; and better harvests and relative calm in food-producing regions have eased food price pressure.
    ‎
    ‎”At 20.12 per cent in August, the apparent indication is that the year-on-year inflation rate has fallen below the 21 per cent target set by the CBN. However, with the momentum being generated in the economy, we can also safely aver that inflation may decline to 17 per cent in December 2025, a target near the 15 per cent set by the federal administration. Attaining this target has huge microeconomic implications.”
    ‎
    ‎
    ‎”We can project that the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will consider easing the current 27.50 per cent monetary policy rate (MPR) by at least 50 basis points at its next meeting and by at least 200 basis points by December 2025.
    ‎
    ‎Similarly, we also project a review of the cash reserve ratio (CRR) from 50 per cent for bank deposits to 35 per cent by December 2025. This review will impact the cost of production, enhance business expansion, and create jobs because of the cheaper cost of credit and the quantum of cash available to money deposit banks to perform their financial intermediary roles,” it added.
    ‎
    ‎IMPI also acknowledged that the rebound in the fortunes of some of Nigeria’s largest businesses after they had suffered losses in the aftermath of the federal government’s decision to float the naira.
    ‎
    ‎”Like the removal of fuel subsidy, in June 2023, Nigeria floated the naira, marking a historic turning point in its foreign exchange regime. Shortly after, the naira experienced a steep depreciation, falling from about N460/$ in June 2023 to N1,535/$ by year-end 2024.
    ‎
    ‎”This sharp depreciation exposed Nigerian companies to massive FX translation losses and rising interest burdens, which eroded shareholders’ value across the Nigerian Exchange.
    ‎
    ‎”The pain was widespread but especially pronounced in the consumer goods and ICT sectors, where companies relied heavily on imported raw materials or carried substantial foreign-denominated loans. By Q1 2024, seven major listed consumer companies — BUA Foods, Cadbury Nigeria, International Breweries, Nigerian Breweries, NASCON Allied Industries, Dangote Sugar, and Nestlé Nigeria- reported a combined loss of N418 billion.
    ‎
    ‎”Over the two years, these companies collectively lost N867 billion, dragged down by foreign exchange exposure and ballooning interest expenses. However, by the last quarter of 2024, signs of stability began to return to the economy.
    ‎
    ‎”The foreign exchange market grew more orderly, with the naira settling into a relatively stable band. FX volatility eased, and market liquidity gradually improved.
    ‎
    ‎”At the same time, companies adjusted their cost structures, refined pricing strategies, and restructured foreign obligations, creating a foundation for recovery. By the end of Q1 2025, that foundation began to yield results. After nearly two years of losses, the consumer goods sector posted a sharp turnaround in Q1 2025.
    ‎
    ‎”The seven companies that had reported a combined loss of N418 billion in Q1 2024 returned to a combined pre-tax profit of N289.8 billion in Q1 2025. By the end of Q2 2025, all the consumer goods companies had returned to profitability with a combined pre-tax profit of about N264 billion.
    ‎
    ‎”These sharp earnings reversal highlights how currency stability and internal cost controls can quickly shift the fortunes of companies previously dragged down by macroeconomic headwinds. This captures the context in which domestic and global commentators have returned a verdict of stability for the Nigerian economy,” IMPI said.
    ‎
    ‎End
    ‎

  • Nigeria-UK N16trn current trade value highest ever — High Commissioner

    Nigeria-UK N16trn current trade value highest ever — High Commissioner

    Nigeria-UK N16trn current trade value highest ever — High Commissioner

    British High Commissioner to Nigeria, Richard Montgomery, says the trade value between Nigeria and Britain, which currently stands at 7.9 billion pounds (16 trillion naira) has hit an unprecedented level.

    Montgomery made this known in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) on Wednesday in Abuja.

    He lauded the UK-Nigeria Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnership (ETIP)which he said boosts trade relations by removing non-tariff trade and investment barriers to foster cooperation in priority sectors.

    According to him, the ETIP, which also promotes collaboration with the Developing Countries Trading Scheme (DCTS), would scale the trade value by providing generous trading terms and tariff reductions on Nigerian products.

    “So I’m really delighted at our most recent trade figures. The 7.9 billion pounds or 16 trillion Naira trade is the highest that it’s ever been between the UK and Nigeria. And so it’s a very positive trajectory.

    “The enhanced Trade and Investment Partnership (ETIP) is exciting because it’s a mutually agreed set of sectors and issues on which the UK and Nigeria government are going to work on.

    “It’s happening under the umbrella of our respective ministers, the federal minister of industry, investment and trade, and the UK business and trade minister,” he said.

    He added: “The exciting thing about ETIP is, and you’ve used the word leverage, that’s precisely right.

    “It identifies through mutual agreement the areas that the UK feels it has a comparative advantage in and the areas that Nigeria wants to create more economic opportunities in.”

    Montgomery said the UK was not competitive in all sectors, but has major advantages in various sectors, including the financial services, new technology, financial technology, artificial intelligence and other digital platforms.

    The British envoy said that in the creative economy, his country has some advanced manufacturing and advanced energy solutions, which are worth looking at, and credible in the Nigerian context.

    He said the UK was doing a lot in higher education investments in the Nigerian education sector, as well as in the agricultural sector to boost Nigeria’s agricultural exports, considering its high potential.

    “So, the ETIP identifies these priorities and we have ways of following up in each sector with the businesses and the government agencies on both sides that can unlock more investment and growth.

    “The aim is mutual growth, it’s creating jobs in both our countries, and that’s why it’s really important that we realise that ETIP is mutually agreed and negotiated, it’s in both our interests,” he added.