Flowerbud News

Author: Mohammed Momoh

  • IN DEFENCE OF PRESIDENT TINUBU’S DEBTS-FOR-INFRASTRUCTURE POLICY

    IN DEFENCE OF PRESIDENT TINUBU’S DEBTS-FOR-INFRASTRUCTURE POLICY

    POLICY STATEMENT 037 BY THE INDEPENDENT MEDIA AND POLICY INITIATIVE (IMPI)

     

    • IN DEFENCE OF PRESIDENT TINUBU’S DEBTS-FOR-INFRASTRUCTURE POLICY

    The nation’s policy space is once again inundated with claustrophobic imputations by politically minded individuals and advocacy groups that stridently demonise the federal administration’s infrastructure policy debts, with a devious objective to disorient the masses against the administration.

    Our review of all imputations made in this regard points to a fallacy of generalisation, lacking an alternative workable solution to the historical limitations inherent in Nigeria’s infrastructure deficit and the consequential unproductive impact on the nation’s economy and development.

    Infrastructure development, in the context of this Policy Statement, encompasses the construction and maintenance of physical structures such as roads, bridges, power supply, transportation systems, and other enabling facilities that facilitate economic activity and improve the quality of life for citizens.

    Nigeria’s infrastructure challenges are vast. Road networks, crucial for trade and mobility, span around 195,000 kilometres. Yet, over 70 per cent of these roads are in poor condition, driving up transportation costs, delaying deliveries, and limiting access to markets, especially for small businesses and farmers.

    Nigeria’s rail infrastructure is also limited. Despite recent investments, the country has only 3,500 kilometres of operational tracks, insufficient for a population exceeding 220 million. Installed power capacity is 12,500 MW, but actual operational output often averages only 4,000 MW, leaving Nigeria’s per capita electricity consumption at just 144 kWh annually, far below the global average of 3,131 kWh. Businesses spend an estimated $29 billion annually on backup energy sources, including diesel generators. This infrastructural insufficiency was attributed to the exit of companies such as GSK and P&G, among others, over the years.

    *Valuation of Nigeria’s Infrastructure Deficit*

    Nigeria’s productivity and standard of living have been ascribed to the inadequacy of infrastructure over the years. While there is a seeming consensus on this assertion, there have been diverse estimates of the true value of the country’s infrastructure deficit.

    The World Bank, which categorises Nigeria as a middle-income economy, estimated the Nation’s total infrastructure stock to be approximately 30% to 35% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This ratio falls well short of the World Bank’s 70% benchmark for middle-income economies. Thus, it is projected that Nigeria will need an accumulated investment of up to $3 trillion over 30 years to bridge the infrastructure gap.

    The African Development Bank (AfDB), on the other hand, estimated the value of the country’s infrastructure shortfall at $2.3 trillion, $700 billion lower than the World Bank’s estimate. According to its erstwhile President, Dr Akinwunmi Adesina, Nigeria needs $15 billion in annual investment over 20 years to bridge its infrastructure gap.

    The International Finance Corporation (IFC), on its part, estimated a lower figure of $2 trillion over 20 years to bridge it. Still, KPMG, the global audit firm, estimated a much lower annual infrastructure spending of $14.2 billion over 10 years, totalling a sum of $142 billion to close the country’s huge infrastructure gap.

    To establish which of the estimates can be realised in Nigeria’s perennially constricted revenue-generation circumstances, we put the different infrastructure deficit estimates to the test of probable outcomes, which determine the likelihood of specific results from a random event or experiment, often calculated as the ratio of favourable outcomes to total possible outcomes.

    Among all the estimates, KPMG’s $142 billion estimate aligned more closely with the Nigerian situation, with a probable outcome indicating that spending $14.2 billion annually over 10 years (a total of $142 billion) is a key target to bridge Nigeria’s infrastructure gap. Accordingly, sustained investment at this level, particularly in transportation, power, and digital infrastructure, will catalyse substantial economic growth and significantly reduce the deficit.

    While this estimate will not absolutely provide the full bouquet of required infrastructure, the investment will shift Nigeria from an infrastructure-deficient state to one with a rapidly modernised, connected, and sustainable system. Such investment could generate roughly 3 to 4 times as many jobs in the economy, significantly reducing unemployment and addressing the poor condition of road networks, enhancing air transport safety, and facilitating faster growth to support a modern digital economy, among other benefits.

    *Historical Budget Allocation and the Possible Realisation of the $142bn Infrastructure Target*

    Over the last 25 years, since 2000, no federal administration has budgeted more than $14 billion for capital spending in a single year, despite three oil booms between 2000 and 2014.

    In 2000, for instance, total federal government projected capital expenditure was $3.62 billion, but only the first quarter was fully disbursed, with lower disbursements recorded in the second quarter to the last. Though the 2001 fiscal year was marked by high oil revenues and windfall gains (excess proceeds), the capital budget was $3.87 billion, but only the first-quarter allocation was fully disbursed.

    In 2002, the total capital expenditure appropriated was $2.7 billion. Still, only about 38% of the capital budget was implemented, with appropriated capital expenditure declining to $2.25 billion in 2003 and recording a marginal increase to $2.6 billion in 2004.

    Though capital spending increased to $ 4.6 billion in 2005, it was still a far cry from KPMG’s $14.2 billion suggested benchmark per annum, especially given that it marked the year of the oil windfall, when projected crude oil sales reached $37.7 billion. But only 55% of the budget was implemented by December, 2005. The trend of low capital appropriation continued in 2006, with total federal infrastructure spending cited at $4.5 billion.

    In 2007, however, the capital budget ballooned to over $5 billion, propelled by an oil sale boom, but actual spending was about $3.9 billion. The same basic, relatively high capital budget appropriation was recorded in 2008, another oil price surge year, when about $6.7 billion was appropriated, with yet again a low implementation threshold. In 2009, approximately $7 billion was budgeted for capital expenditure, but only about 54.26% was released.

    In tandem with the oil boom of 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013, appropriated capital expenditure increased to about $12.3 billion, $10.42 billion, $8.2 billion, and $9.9 billion, respectively. However, all the appropriated expenditures were reported to have performed below 70 per cent.

    We note that, beginning in 2014, after the global oil price upswing, capital expenditure returned to the $6 billion range. By 2015, however, earnings from crude oil had crashed, and that reflected in a reduced capital budget allocation of about $3.2 billion.

    Nevertheless, as of September 2015, only about $1 billion had been spent on capital projects.

    In 2016, there was a relative increase in both allocation and implementation, with about $3.95 billion released for capital projects. Paradoxically, the year of the oil crash recorded the highest capital release for infrastructure in the country’s history up to that point. The budget was successfully implemented through loans and related debts.
    About $2 billion was specifically injected to revive abandoned projects in the year. In 2017, proposed capital expenditure was roughly $7.3 billion; however, about $4.5 billion was released. In 2018, capital expenditure was quite ambitious at about $9.42 billion, again with about $4.4 billion released. This was replicated in 2019 when total capital expenditure released was roughly $3.9 billion out of the approved capital budget of $6.6 billion. In 2020, budgeted capital expenditure was about $5.0 billion.

    In 2021, planned capital expenditure totalled roughly $10.4 billion. However, the actual spending was about $5 billion. Beginning with the 2022 capital budget allocation, we observed an exponential increase in the capital budget to $13.34 billion; however, only about $4.29 billion was released. The value of capital expenditure declined to $9.3 billion in 2023, while actual performance was reported at $3.45 billion. Beginning in 2024, we observed a policy of rolling over outstanding appropriated expenditures into the following year to ensure their complete implementation. The 2024 capital expenditure was printed at about $13 billion, with a further increase to about $15 billion in the 2025 budget for restoration.

    We note at this juncture the near-perennial low budget implementation threshold since 2000, with the obvious inconsequentiality of appropriated expenditure on infrastructural development.

    However, at this time, we acknowledge the record-breaking fiscal milestone set by the President Tinubu-led federal administration, which matched and exceeded KPMG’s $14.2 billion annual infrastructure spending estimate for the first time in Nigeria’s fiscal history.

    Based on the approved 2026 Appropriation Act, the Nigerian government significantly expanded its fiscal framework, with the total budget breaking records. Remarkably, the budget allocated $23 billion (roughly half the total budget) to infrastructure and other capital expenditures.

    Without doubt, the 2026 budget is indicative of a new vista in the nation’s fiscal firmament with emphasis on securing debts for infrastructure development.

    The approved $23 billion infrastructure budget is about the same size as the budget deficit to be financed almost entirely through debt.

    This debt-for-infrastructure spending policy had roused a cacophony of concerns and, at times, condemnation in political opposition quarters and corporate advocacy groups. Some had orchestrated the fact that debts should not have been planned to finance the 2026 deficit since the removal of the fiscally ruinous fuel subsidy. The opposing argument is that the removal had saved the country about $10 billion, which should naturally revert to the federation account.

    Our retort, however, is that the $10 billion annual fuel subsidy was mostly funded by debt and did not account for the bulk of the financing required for capital spending at that time or now. The country definitely needed more than the $10 billion saved from subsidies to provide functional infrastructural facilities.

    Some other adversarial imputations have also argued that, rather than resorting to debt financing for infrastructure, the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model should be vigorously adopted. We note, conversely, that several empirical studies have shown that PPPs in infrastructure financing face significant challenges, including high transaction costs, lengthy negotiation timelines, complex risk allocation, and political instability, which often result in projects being treated as off-balance-sheet liabilities.

    Other key obstacles include limited institutional capacity to manage contracts, weak legal frameworks, insufficient financial resources and abandonment.

    In addition, private investors are drawn more to jurisdictions that have demonstrated strong commitments to infrastructure investment because such commitments act as key indicators of economic stability, reduced operational risks, and enhanced profitability, unlike what obtains in Nigeria.

    A substantive indicator of the private sector’s reluctance to enthusiastically embrace the infrastructure PPP in Nigeria is that institutional assets, including pension and insurance funds, have exceeded $100 billion, yet less than 5% is invested in infrastructure, compared to 15% in South Africa.

    Private equity and venture capital flow to Nigeria reached $1.2 billion in 2023, but little of this was directed to infrastructure.

    The reality is that manifest government funding of infrastructure assets usually motivates and builds investors’ confidence in the jurisdiction of interest.

    Nonetheless, from both global and domestic indicators, there are growing signs of investors’ increased confidence in Nigeria’s debt instruments, evidenced by Nigeria’s sovereign Eurobonds yields, which fell last week to 6.89% from 8% for the first time on record. This signals improved sentiment among foreign portfolio investors towards the country and underscores the strength of demand for Nigeria’s external debt, even as global borrowing costs remain elevated.

    This positive development is despite rising US Treasury yields, which usually attract investors away from emerging-market debt. Instead, investors are increasingly pricing in Nigeria’s improved macroeconomic stability, reform momentum and more recently, the rally in oil prices following the U.S.-Iran war. Thus, it can be safely asserted that the global capital market will provide Nigeria with a cheaper cost of debt in the future.

    We also note that some Nigerian corporates express concerns about the crowding out of domestic companies from the debt market by the federal government’s borrowing there.

    Our submission in this regard is that, at this point in the nation’s developmental trajectory, all considerations should be subject to the requirements of development infrastructure investment, with borrowed funds directed to high-priority projects in transportation, power, digital, healthcare, and education that enhance long-term productivity and economic growth.

    We must add that the government’s issuance of domestic debt through bonds and treasury bills deepens local financial markets, helping to create a benchmark yield curve. This serves as a reference point for pricing private-sector debt and facilitates the growth of corporate bond markets.

    *Conclusion*

    Already, we are seeing clear signs of a rejuvenated Nigerian infrastructure, with the recent approval by the Tinubu-led Federal Executive Council of a record-breaking suite of infrastructure projects. These include $2.99 billion for rail projects in Lagos, Kano, and Kaduna, more than ₦7 trillion for road and bridge works nationwide, $billion worth of total reconstruction of major seaports in Apapa, Tin Can, Calabar, Warri, and Port Harcourt to address decades of neglect and ₦1.096 trillion for capital projects in the power sector, among others.

     

    Omoniyi M. Akinsiju, PhD

    Chairman,

    Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI)

    May 17, 2026

  • NIGERIA’S 38.68% INCREASE IN EXPORT EARNINGS TRACEABLE TO TINUBU’S ECONOMIC REFORMS- TMV

    NIGERIA’S 38.68% INCREASE IN EXPORT EARNINGS TRACEABLE TO TINUBU’S ECONOMIC REFORMS- TMV

    • NIGERIA’S 38.68% INCREASE IN EXPORT EARNINGS TRACEABLE TO TINUBU’S ECONOMIC REFORMS- TMV

     

    The Tinubu Media Volunteers has attributed the phenomenal increase in non-oil export earnings in the first quarter of 2026 to the economic reforms introduced by the President Bola Tinubu administration.

    In a statement signed by its Chairman Chukwudi Enekwechi and Secretary Segun Ogedengbe, the group expressed a conviction that the upward trajectory would be sustained.

    The statement reads in part: “For us, it is a welcome development that the diversification of the economy as envisaged by the federal government is now driving the significant growth being witnessed in the non-oil export earnings.

    “It is noted that the new data from the Nigeria Customs Service indicated a strong growth in export earnings, cargo movement and revenue collections. What this means is that Nigeria’s trade performance has recorded a significant upswing in the first quarter of this year and this trajectory is likely to continue.

    “Also from the data, we can see a notable rebounding of non-oil trade with the export value rising by 38.68% in Q1 of this year compared to the corresponding period in 2025.

    “It is also observed that export logistics improved with container throughput doubling within the period under review. While the exports processed stood at $925.84m representing a 38.68% increase compared to Q1 2025 the total containers handled increased to 19,014 from 9,722 showing a 95.58 % increase.

    “We therefore applaud the federal government for the various reforms initiated in port operations, customs procedures and the several trade facilitation measures.

    “We also attribute the rise to increased export activities especially in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors as Nigeria intensifies its diversification push away from crude oil dependence.

    “We also align ourselves with the position of the industry stakeholders that while the Q1 2026 trade performance indicates improved trade efficiency and export expansion, there is a need to sustain the momentum with infrastructure upgrades, policy consistency and improved access to export markets.”

    The group urged newly-appointed ambassadors to use their good offices not only to attract foreign investors but to explore export markets for Nigerian goods and services.

    End

  • IMPI faults opposition, rates Tinubu’s policies successful, as Naira succeeds as Africa’s second-best-performing currency against dollar

    IMPI faults opposition, rates Tinubu’s policies successful, as Naira succeeds as Africa’s second-best-performing currency against dollar

    • IMPI faults opposition, rates Tinubu’s policies successful, as Naira succeeds as Africa’s second-best-performing currency against dollar

    (more…)

  • TMSG to ADC: You are a motley crew of power mongers, palace jesters

    TMSG to ADC: You are a motley crew of power mongers, palace jesters

    TMSG to ADC: You are a motley crew of power mongers, palace jesters

    The Tinubu Media Support Group (TMSG) has said it is the African Democratic Congress (ADC), a gang of failed, power-mongering politicians, not the All Progressives Congress (APC ) that is the real threat to democracy in the country.

    The group said that it is not surprised that many Nigerians are gravitating towards the All Progressives Congress (APC) because they have seen a political party that knows the road to the nation’s prosperity.

    In a statement signed by its Chairman Emeka Nwankpa and Secretary Dapo Okubanjo, the group argued that if the opposition party truly seeks to be considered as a credible alternative to the ruling party, it should put forward individuals who have never held public office.

    This, according to the group, is because many of those fronting as ADC leaders have held political office without a meaningful track record and extraordinary performance.

    “We have noticed how leaders of the African Democratic Party (ADC) have continued to posture, presenting themselves as credible alternatives to the ruling party but many of them who have held public office since 1999 failed woefully sinking the country into deeper depths of misery.

    “We invite Nigerians to exhume and scrutinise the antecedents of these politicians, right from the party chairman, Senator David Mark to the National Secretary, Rauf Aregbesola, and to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar who have held various political offices. Worse are some others in ADC’s front row whose woeful performance makes a huge mockery of their current de-marketing of the performing APC.

    “While it may be easy to fool younger Nigerians, we believe that many people who are old enough to witness the current democratic dispensation know those to be considered as real threats to democracy.

    “So we are not surprised that more Nigerians see APC as a better option especially as President Bola Tinubu’s bold reforms are gradually building a more resilient economy and turning things around to the utter chagrin of ADC members,” the statement added.

    The group cautioned that Nigerians should be wary of such failed politicians with no real history of achievements in public office.

    “We believe if leaders and members of ADC are really keen on proving that they are a different breed of politicians, they should put forward people without blemish and political baggage to run for office.

    “We dare say that a party that has former Vice President Abubakar and former Attorney General Abubakar Malami, for instance, among its ring leaders cannot really be taken seriously considering their lacklustre pedigree in office.

    “It is shocking that these are the people presenting themselves as worthy alternatives to the extent of calling APC a threat to democracy.

    “It should not surprise anyone that these people cannot even canvass and convince their children to join their political party. But what is surprising is their attempt to woo Nigerians to trust them with power at the centre,” it said.

    TMSG maintained that while ADC still has a long way to go if it truly wishes to unseat President Bola Tinubu and APC in 2027, the future of Nigerians and those yet unborn is too serious to be left in the hands of the opposition party which, at best, can be called a motley crowd of power mongers and palace jesters.

    End.

  • NLC’s insistence on eating the seed and expecting a harvest is a metaphor for an absurdity

    NLC’s insistence on eating the seed and expecting a harvest is a metaphor for an absurdity

    NLC’s insistence on eating the seed and expecting a harvest is a metaphor for an absurdit

     

    POLICY STATEMENT 035 BY THE INDEPENDENT MEDIA AND POLICY INITIATIVE (IMPI)

     

    ‎Introduction
    ‎It appears that the leadership of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) is determined to remain stuck in Nigeria’s old economic order.
    ‎We, in this regard, reference the recent statement issued by the NLC in which it stridently demanded, among others, the immediate payment of wage award and cost-of-living allowance (COLA) for all workers to cushion the rising cost of living; immediate tax relief for workers, including suspending regressive taxes on low-income earners and taxing the informal sector.
    ‎We consider these demands rather curious and insensitive against the background of various policy conceptualisations and their deployment by the Federal Administration to improve the quality of life in the country since the commencement of economic reforms in 2023, and in the face of the United States of America and Israel’s war against Iran.
    Oddly enough, this plethora of demands by the NLC was predicated on the recent projections by the Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG), signifying that the country may gain an estimated N30 trillion oil windfall from the ongoing Middle East crisis. We consider this proposal rather inappropriate in the context of the age-long principle that admonishes that ‘one cannot eat the seeds and expect to reap a harvest.’
    ‎The principle underscores that consuming resources (time, money, talent, etc.) intended for growth prevents future returns, in line with the biblical concept of reaping what you sow. It advises against sacrificing long-term success for short-term gratification.
    ‎
    ‎The oddity of Eating the Seeds and Expecting to Reap a Harvest
    ‎Against the thrust of this principle, the implication of the NLC’s demands is an insistence that the Federal Government share with workers the anticipated N30 trillion that may accrue to the federation. However, in our opinion, this N30 trillion, if it truly crystallises as projected, holds the key to galvanising the growth of the Nigerian economy compared to any possible outcome that would be recorded if shared with formal sector workers under the ambit of the NLC.
    The fact of the matter is that formal workers represent just about 15 per cent of Nigeria’s total workforce, with over 85 per cent engaged in the informal economy. With a total labour force exceeding 113 million, who will care for the more than 96 million Nigerians in the informal sector if those in the formal sector alone share the anticipated windfall from the Middle East crisis?
    ‎We find the NLC’s proposal at this time myopic, especially coming from a workers’ union with a history of engagement with various governments and, ostensibly, an understanding of the undercurrents of the national economy at different times.
    ‎We agree, in fact, that since the commencement of hostilities in the Middle East, there has been an increase in the cost of living of Nigerians because of the 34 per cent rise in the pump price of premium motor spirit (PMS) over the last three weeks, with attendant spill-over on the cost of transport and logistics. Nonetheless, we are quick to insist that the historical circumstances that causally enfeeble the Nigerian national economy at the first sign of global oil market disruption no longer obtain in the current form of the Nigerian economy under the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led federal administration.
    ‎
    ‎Tracking the History of Oil Price Surges and Associated Inconsequentiality to the Economy
    ‎We recall that between 2000 and 2015, there were several global oil price surges, peaking near $ 110 in 2011-2014. However, the increased revenue to the national coffers in those years merely accrued at the expense of domestic petrol scarcity, due to heavy reliance on imports and a corruption-laden subsidy regime. For context, we note that fuel prices rose by more than 90 per cent, from ₦22 to ₦40 per litre, between 2002 and 2003, amid significant supply disruptions across the country.
    Again, between 2007 and 2008, due to a global demand surge, crude oil prices hit record highs. This was accompanied by massive fraudulent subsidy payments to petrol importers, which, unfortunately, resulted in large fiscal deficits despite high revenue. This scenario was further reflected between 2011 and 2014 when oil prices skyrocketed again.
    ‎We further note that from 2007 to 2008 and between 2011 and 2014, when Nigeria sold oil at around $100 per barrel on average, with resultant high revenue to the federation, increases in poverty, maternal mortality, unemployment, and environmental challenges permeated the nooks and crannies of the country.
    ‎As a matter of fact, official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed a rise in the incidence of absolute poverty during this time, moving from approximately 54.4 per cent of the population in 2007, that is 78.6 million Nigerians, to 60.9 per cent in 2010, (about 96.2 million Nigerians). The poverty level increased to about 116.9 million Nigerians in 2012. This reflects a period in which economic growth was often criticised for failing to translate into significant poverty reduction.
    ‎This depressing 2002 to 2014 scenario does not compare in the least to the emerging national economic outlook for 2026, in the context of the ongoing global oil price surge, domestic fuel availability, and, most importantly, the extent of the nation’s macroeconomic stability.
    ‎Against this backdrop, the projected crude oil and gas windfall is better used to enhance the economic resilience being deliberately nurtured through various federal administration’s policy conceptualisation and deployment.
    ‎Indeed, as reviewed below, our analysis of the nation’s critical economic indicators over the last three years demonstrates a fundamental shift in the Nigerian economy.
    ‎
    ‎Changes in the Value and Components of Nigeria’s GDP
    ‎In 2015, the year immediately following the years of global crude price surge between 2011 and 2014, rather than increasing, Nigeria’s GDP declined from a high of $576 billion in 2014 to approximately $494.31 billion (at current prices) in 2015. Distressingly, the economy grew by 2.35 per cent in real terms (year-on-year) during the second quarter of 2015, marking a slowdown from 6.54 per cent growth in the same quarter of 2014, a manifestation of an economy lacking resilience despite the huge accruals as a result of revenue earned during the oil boom years.
    ‎The dismal turn of the nation’s economy, as recorded from the second quarter of 2015, when Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 2.35 per cent year-on-year, from the initial low of 3.96 per cent growth in the first quarter of 2015, was a clear indication of a badly managed economy as the then federal administration exited presidential power.
    ‎In contrast to that era, Nigeria’s GDP figure, after an integrity-driven rebasing, reached N441.53 trillion in 2025, an increase of N68.71 trillion, or 18.43 per cent, from the preceding year. In dollar terms, nominal GDP rose to approximately $308 billion, up from $241 billion in 2024, a $67 billion recovery. This shows a growth momentum in the economy and marks the first positive increase in Nigeria’s dollar GDP since 2019, when the economy stood at $569 billion.
    We note the significant gap between $308 billion and $569 billion. However, the 2025 GDP increase is indicative of the economy’s upward trajectory under the current federal administration.
    ‎More impressive is that compared to the period when the petroleum sector determines the weight and substance of the GDP, there is a clear evidence that the real GDP acceleration is now supported by non-oil sectors including solid minerals, transport, financial services, telecom, and manufacturing, through the concentration of nominal gains in six sectors; real estate, trade, telecoms, financial institutions, construction, and crop production, which together account for 69 percent of the N68.71 trillion increase.
    ‎More than any other intervening considerations, the consequential nature of the macroeconomic stability which the federal government has continued to sustain should be acknowledged and analysed.

    ‎Analysis of Consequential Impact of Nigeria’s Macroeconomic Stability: Price stability/FX Liquidity/Equity Market Appreciation:
    The decline in inflation from a high of 34.6 per cent in November 2024 to 15.06 per cent by February 2026 is considered the most consequential macroeconomic development of the Federal Administration’s reform cycle. In addition, the Naira appreciated by over five per cent in 2025, underscored by the narrowing of the FX premium to between 0.5 and 3 per cent. This signals a new transaction range between the official and parallel markets. It also underpins the real sector recovery.
    ‎By our estimation, the foreign exchange market liquidity has been remarkable. The country’s gross external reserves have surpassed the $50 billion mark, reaching their highest level in over 13 years, while net foreign reserves increased from $4 billion in 2023 to over $34.8 billion at the end of 2025, a nearly nine-fold increase.
    ‎This is just as the equity market capitalisation crossed N130 trillion on March 17, 2026, more than tripling its level in 2023, with the benchmark All Share Index settling at 202,559.41 basis points on the same day. It is agreed that this reflects structural improvements in reserve adequacy, exchange rate credibility, and capital market activity.
    Consequently, investors in Nigeria are in a cheery mood. The equity market made a 30 per cent year-to-date return in the first quarter of 2026. As a result, the Nigerian bourse is currently the second-best-performing market globally, trailing only South Korea, which grew 44.3 per cent. We note that the NGX’s record-breaking run is not just about luck. A combination of domestic policy and corporate health is driving the equity market surge.
    ‎
    ‎Impacting the Micro Segments of the Economy
    ‎Our follow-up study of the Federal Government’s microeconomic stimulus indicates a range of programmes and policies deployed to transform Nigeria from the economic docility of years of fuel subsidy dependency and import consumerism to enabling citizens to be productive through various levels of empowerment.
    ‎
    ‎One of such empowerments was the flag-off of the $500 million World Bank-funded Sustainable Power and Irrigation for Nigeria (SPIN) Project. The project aims to accelerate food production and increase power generation as part of a strategic intervention to strengthen dam safety and water resources management for improved irrigation and hydropower generation.
    ‎Directly connected to this is the Federal Government’s approval of a N250 billion facility for the Bank of Agriculture (BOA) to support smallholder farmers across Nigeria, offering them access to credit at a single-digit interest rate, and in the same token, releasing 2.15 million bags of fertiliser to support farmers to boost food production across the country. The move aims to lower production costs, boost yields, and strengthen Nigeria’s food supply chain. The intervention will help reduce farmers’ production costs.
    ‎Meanwhile, in another intervention targeted at boosting food production and reducing poverty, the Federal Government has launched an interest-free, collateral-free loan scheme targeting at least 22,000 farmers across the 774 local government areas of the country. The initiative, under the FarmerMoni Dry and Wet Season Programme, is being implemented by the National Social Investment Programme Agency (NSIPA) as part of the Renewed Hope Government Enterprise and Empowerment Programme (GEEP 3.0).
    To ensure increased food production, the Federal administration is currently implementing the GROW Fund to provide affordable financing for over 6,000 young entrepreneurs trained under the Inspire, Create, Start and Scale programme, in a move aimed at tackling the persistent funding gap confronting micro, small and medium enterprises in Nigeria.
    ‎In addition, agricultural mechanisation has taken a pride of place, as the federal government is currently deploying 2000-plus tractors and 10,000-plus implements through a public-private partnership (PPP) arrangement, focusing on a 40 per cent subsidised lease-to-own model for smallholder farmers.
    ‎To support the sub-nationals’ delivery on infrastructure, the federal administration has disbursed more than N2.45 trillion to federating States. The amount disbursed between March 2024 and August 2025, spanning over 17 months, was aimed at bolstering infrastructure development and strengthening subnational security operations, as part of ongoing efforts to address widespread insecurity and bridge critical infrastructure gaps across the country.
    In addition, it is appropriate to put on record that the Federal Administration has commenced the payment of the tax-free Consolidated Academic Tools Allowance (CATA) to university academics across the country, in fulfilment of the agreement reached between the Federal Government and university lecturers. The allowance, which ranges from a little over N1 million annually for graduate assistants and assistant lecturers to over N3 million for professors, is expected to increase university teachers’ take-home pay.
    ‎The Consolidated Academic Tolls Allowance (CATA) is a specific financial component of the salary structure for University Academic Staff in Nigeria. The Tinubu administration introduced it as a job-specific, tax-exempt allowance that supports the core research, teaching, and intellectual activities of university academics. It is the first time such a policy is being implemented in Nigerian universities. It has helped mitigate the perennial industrial actions that were the lot of Federal Government-owned universities over the years.
    ‎We also note that the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) is implementing transmission projects worth over $1.3 billion nationwide, funded by multilateral partners, to boost grid capacity and strengthen power delivery. The projects aim to improve wheeling capacity, reinforce weak corridors, and modernise critical grid infrastructure across the country. The successful delivery of these transmission projects nationwide will have positive implications for the cost of doing business, the quality of life, and the standard of living of Nigerians.
    ‎We further acknowledge the intentional policy of enabling a credit economy to facilitate asset acquisition through the Nigerian Consumer Credit Corporation (CREDICORP). In just one year of operations, CREDICORP has disbursed over N37 billion in consumer credit to more than 200,000 Nigerians, with over half of them accessing formal credit for the first time.
    ‎To scale capacity and professional capability, the Federal Government of Nigeria has launched a nationwide free training program for 10 million Nigerians on financial inclusion and literacy. The training is designed to equip Nigerians, particularly women and youths, with essential financial skills, investment knowledge, and digital competencies for sustainable wealth creation through the facilitation of six professional bodies, which will jointly design training programmes, certification pathways, digital skills initiatives, and mentorship platforms that would strengthen Nigeria’s financial and enterprise workforce.
    ‎The professional bodies include the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN); Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN); Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers (CIS); National Institute of Credit Administration (NICA); Chartered Risk Management Institute (CRMI), and Nigeria Institute of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (NIIE).
    ‎Meanwhile, a significant indicator of an economy’s strength is the financial performance of companies listed on the nation’s stock market.
    ‎Listed companies on the Nigerian Stock Exchange have reported higher-than-expected earnings, underscoring the rebound of many firms, with about N1.7 trillion in dividends declared to shareholders.
    ‎
    ‎As of March 13, a total of 21 listed companies on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) have announced dividends for 2025, amounting to N1.7 trillion, as corporate earnings more than doubled. The combined revenue of the companies analysed rose to approximately N13.44 trillion in 2025, from N9.76 trillion in 2024, while profit increased to N3.17 trillion, compared with the N571 billion recorded a year earlier.
    ‎Contrary to the demands of the NLC, asking for tax relief for workers, including suspending regressive taxes on low-income earners and taxing the informal sector, it is imperative to remind Labour that under new tax laws, which became effective from January 1, 2026, individuals earning an annual income of ₦800,000 or less are fully exempt from personal income tax (PAYE). This, along with other reliefs in the Nigeria Tax Act 2025, ensures that most minimum-wage earners retain their full earnings.
    Necessities such as food, education, healthcare, and electricity are exempt from VAT. At the same time, a new system provides rent relief, calculated as the lower of N500,000 or 20 per cent of the annual rent paid. Small businesses are now exempt from Company Income Tax (CIT). These reforms aim to provide immediate relief for low-income households and individuals.
    ‎Effective from January 1, 2026, retiring federal civil servants are entitled to a gratuity equal to 100 per cent of their total annual emolument under the Exit Benefit scheme. This is in addition to the 20 per cent and 28 per cent consequential increases in pension for retirees under the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS), as well as the introduction of a N35,000 monthly increment for all CPS retirees. This marks a significant milestone in the Federal Government’s commitment to strengthening the welfare framework of the civil service.
    ‎We request the NLC to take cognisance of this unprecedented pension support policy for CPS retirees who have been abandoned by government since 2004.
    ‎More impressively, the federal government has intervened in the country’s rent crisis with housing solutions focused on renters who now spend a significant part of their income on house rent. One of the housing solutions the government has introduced is the Rent-to-Own scheme, which allows eligible Nigerians to move into homes while paying monthly instalments towards eventual ownership. The scheme will offer practical housing solutions for urban workers and young families grappling with rising rents and limited access to mortgages.
    ‎
    ‎Conclusion
    ‎We have highlighted some of the policies and social interventions above as a gentle reminder to individuals and institutions, such as the NLC, of the proactive, Federal Government led ongoing initiatives to mitigate and contain a possible increase in the cost of living.
    ‎However, we place great emphasis on the Federal Government’s fervent restructuring of the national economy to ensure improved production capacity, wealth creation, inclusive economic growth, and poverty reduction.

    Omoniyi M. Akinsiju, PhD
    Chairman, Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI)
    March, 2026

  • How Tinubu deployed tools of economic progressivism to lift Nigeria out of years of decadent values, profligacy – IMPI

    How Tinubu deployed tools of economic progressivism to lift Nigeria out of years of decadent values, profligacy – IMPI

    How Tinubu deployed tools of economic progressivism to lift Nigeria out of years of decadent values, profligacy – IMPI

     

    The Independent Media and Policy Initiatives (IMPI) has said that President Bola Tinubu caused a turnaround in Nigeria’s economy by deploying tools of economic progressivism.

    In a policy statement signed by its Chairman Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI argued that it was the best of way of weaning the country off decades of profligacy.

    It said, “Like the USA, Nigeria has had periods of decadent public value and normalisation of profligacy in high offices.

    “Before the economic reforms initiated by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in May 2023, the Nigerian economy was characterised by a deeply entrenched oligarchy, where a small group of political elites, military officers, and business moguls controlled state resources.

    “This structure was sustained by a patronage system, particularly in the oil sector, which benefited a select few while the majority of the population faced poverty, with 63 per cent (about 133 million people) living in multidimensional poverty by 2022.

    “The “pre-reform” economic landscape was defined by several key oligarchic and structural features: A significant portion of the oligarchy benefited from the fuel subsidy system, which was described as being rife with corruption and used as a “feeding bottle” for a select few.

    “The existence of multiple exchange rate windows allowed “FX subsidy merchants” to exploit the gap between official and parallel market rates, effectively draining government finances. Economic power was heavily concentrated in the petroleum industry, with access to oil revenues controlled by those in power and their close associates.

    “By the time Tinubu took office, Nigeria was spending approximately 97 percent of its total revenue on debt servicing, a situation described as “disastrous”.

    “Beyond the oligarchy’s capture of the Nigerian state, we note the obvious decimation of the nation’s fiscal substance before the coming of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to the federal administration in 2015.

    “Data show that Nigeria’s export profile changed significantly after 2014, resetting to a lower range that has persisted despite periodic recoveries. Nigeria reached a peak crude oil and gas export value of $93.89 billion in 2011, the highest in the dataset.

    “At this time, however, we can submit with much assertion that the federal administration has, indeed, taken Nigeria out of the woods, evidenced by a turnaround economy that shows an indication of stability while unlocking the stranglehold of the oligarchs on the nation’s economy.

    IMPI also identified some of the policies and programmes of the Tinubu administration that set the country on the path of economic stability.

    “To support our assertion of an ideology-based economic turnaround, we itemise some of the key tools of progressivism that the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led federal administration has deployed to accomplish the present feat.

    “These include fiscal policy and taxation, redistributive spending, estate and wealth taxes, labour and wealth protection, monetary and financial reforms, infrastructural development, and public investment and ownership,”it said.

    The policy group also provided some insights into the impact of economic progressivism on the landscape.

    “Allocations from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) in 2025 experienced a significant surge, with the three tiers of government sharing over ₦33.27 trillion in the first eleven months, a 30 percent increase over the same period in 2024.

    “This growth, driven by subsidy removal and exchange rate reforms, included record monthly distributions, such as ₦3.64 trillion in September 2025, significantly boosting subnational revenue.

    “Inflation, while still in double digits, has dropped by over half from a peak of 34.6 percent in November 2024, to 15.10 percent in January 2026 reflecting over nine months of consistent disinflation.

    “This has largely restored real purchasing power for households and businesses, with Nigerians now reaping the benefits of the exchange rate unification.

    “Nigeria’s food inflation rate eased to 8.89 percent year-on-year in January 2026, this marks its first single-digit reading in 128 months and the lowest level in 174 months. The January 2026 CPI report shows food inflation declined from 29.63 percent recorded in January 2025 to 8.89 percent in January 2026, a sharp 20.73 percentage point year-on-year drop.

    “The 8.89 percent reading is the first time food inflation has fallen below 10 percent since May 2015, when it stood at 9.78 percent. January 2026, therefore, ends a stretch of more than 10 years of persistent double-digit food inflation. More significantly, the January figure is the lowest since August 2011, when food inflation was 8.66 percent

    “We continue to observe a huge contraction in the gap between the official and parallel market rates which has shrunk from 60 to 2 percent with the naira as of Tuesday, February 24, 2026, trading at approximately ₦1,349.24 to the US Dollar in the official market and between ₦1,355 and ₦1,420 in the parallel (black) market.

    “The naira is rated the world’s second-best performing currency this year with a more than 7 percent gain against the dollar,” the policy group noted.

     

    End

  • Group hails Tinubu’s swift assent to the 2026 Electoral Act

    Group hails Tinubu’s swift assent to the 2026 Electoral Act

    Group hails Tinubu’s swift assent to the 2026 Electoral Act

    The Tinubu Media Support Group (TMSG) has endorsed President Bola Tinubu’s swift assent to the Electoral Act 2026 within 24 hours of its passage by the National Assembly.

    In a statement signed by its Chairman Emeka Nwankpa and Secretary Dapo Okubanjo, TMSG expressed confidence that it would enable the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) to quickly adopt new provisions in the amended law in conducting the 2027 elections.

    It said, “We see the decision by President Bola Tinubu to sign the reworked 2022 Electoral Act into law within a few hours of its passage as a demonstration of political will to ensure an improved electoral process which the new law envisages.

    “We are aware that the provision for electronic transmission of election results had been contentious, to the extent that a casual observer of the Nigerian polity could think it is the only key provision of the new law, but like many people, we acknowledge that codifying it in the electoral law is a demonstration of a readiness for a better process.

    “So, for the first time, the country’s electoral law would be recognising the use of the Bi-modal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the result viewing portal, IREV, which were just INEC guidelines in 2023.

    “And although the 2026 Electoral Act provides for electronic transmission of results from polling units to the IREV, there are also provisions for manual transmission of Form EC8A result sheets as a backup where technology fails.

    “Unlike some Nigerians, we do not see anything wrong with the fallback plan but we agree with the President that no matter how beautiful a process is with improved technology, the onus lies on the people manning it to show good faith and ensure that the votes of the people really count at the end of the day.

    “There are indeed a lot more provisions in the new law to pave the way for a better electioneering process and these include the one that streamlines party primaries into either consensus or direct primary, as well as the provision for early release of funds to the election management body.

    “There is also a reinforced control of over-voting while sanctions for electoral offences including falsification of results are now stiffer.

    “In addition, the mandatory notice period for elections was reduced from 360 days to 300 days which now gives INEC the leeway to adjust the timetable for the 2027 election which was to clash with Ramadan next year.”

    “And by signing the amendment bill a few days before the Area Council Election in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), it is obvious that the President is keen on ensuring that the 2026 Electoral Act takes immediate effect. Nigerians would also have an opportunity to see some of the key provisions of the new electoral law become operational, especially the electronic transmission of results,”

    The group further noted that it looked forward to the present INEC management using the new law as a basis for a credible electioneering process that would be more widely acceptable than previous ones.

    End

  • ‎TDF welcomes joint US/Nigeria operations against terrorists in Sokot ‎

    ‎TDF welcomes joint US/Nigeria operations against terrorists in Sokot ‎

    (more…)

  • ‎Tinubu building a more modern, combat -ready military – IMPI

    ‎Tinubu building a more modern, combat -ready military – IMPI

    ‎
    ‎
    ‎Tinubu building a more modern, combat -ready military – IMP
    ‎

     

    ‎The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has said that the administration of President Bola Tinubu is modernizing the Nigerian military by acquiring combat helicopters and other platforms best suited for contemporary security challenges.
    ‎
    ‎This is with a view to ensuring more precision strikes on terrorists locations without a few of collateral damage especially as the criminals also operate from areas with sizeable population in Northern Nigeria.
    ‎
    ‎In a policy statement signed by its Chairman Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, the think tank itemized some of the military hardware the administration has either paid for or acquired in the last 30 months.
    ‎
    ‎IMPI said: “For the record, the rise in Nigeria’s firepower and military ranking from the fourth most powerful military on the African continent to third was accomplished during the ongoing Tinubu administration.
    ‎
    ‎”Over the past 32 months, we have observed a shift in the value orientation of the character, capacity, and equipment stock at the disposal of the three arms of the Nigerian military. This underscores a precise, deliberate strategic manoeuvre to modernise the armed forces into a dynamic fighting force for both asymmetric and conventional military engagements.
    ‎
    ‎”More impressively, we have observed that the military high command, under the leadership of the President, continues to recognise the gaps in the old structure and now directly addresses the inadequacies inherent in the old order to build a more innovative, technology-driven military.
    ‎
    ‎”For instance, we observe a new emphasis on air attack and precision capabilities. This is evident in the feverish acquisition of assault and combat helicopters and related air-attack platforms.
    ‎
    ‎”With the stated aim of structuring an elite force that is not only well-equipped but also proficient in advanced tactics, unconventional warfare, intelligence-driven operations, and rapid response missions, Nigeria is now on track to become the first African country to operate the AH-1Z Viper attack helicopter, joining the United States, Bahrain, and the Czech Republic.
    ‎
    ‎”To this end, the Nigerian Air Force has acquired 12 AH-1Z helicopters from the US to enhance its counter-terrorism capabilities. The AH-1Z Vipers are intended to significantly improve the Nigerian Air Force’s combat effectiveness, operational efficiency, and mission readiness.
    ‎
    ‎”The move is a significant part of Nigeria’s defence modernisation strategy to combat complex security threats.  The helicopters are known for their advanced targeting, lethality and battlefield agility.
    ‎
    ‎”To enhance its lethality, Northrop Grumman was awarded a $7.7 million contract modification “for the production and delivery of an additional 32 H-1 tech refresh mission computers in support of the AH-1Z aircraft for the government of Nigeria”.
    ‎
    ‎”The deal included 28 T-700 GE 401C engines, 2000 Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) guidance sections, M197 20 mm guns, sighting systems, and night vision equipment, technical and logistics support.
    ‎
    ‎”Nigeria’s total AH-1Z procurement was estimated by the US Defence Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) at $997 million and included helicopters, related equipment, spares, weapons, training, and support. Nigeria made the first instalment payment for the AH-1Z Viper (Cobra) attack helicopters in August 2023.
    ‎
    ‎”The attack helicopters were initially expected to begin arriving around 2028 due to production queues and competing US export commitments. However, a high-level Programme Management Review held in San Diego in June 2025, led by then NAF Chief Air Marshal Hasan Bala Abubakar and hosted by Bell Textron and US defence officials, was expressly aimed at compressing that timeline.
    ‎
    ‎”While neither side has confirmed a revised schedule, indications from the meeting suggest the possibility of first deliveries as early as 2026 or 2027. ”
    ‎
    ‎The think tank also pointed at the Army’s decision to establish its own aviation unit as a potential game changer in its bid to build its operational capabilities.
    ‎
    ‎”Further to its counter-terrorism efforts, the Nigerian Army has established its aviation corps. The objective is to enhance its effectiveness against terrorist groups in the North East.
    ‎
    ‎”The service had attributed the prolonged battle against terrorist groups to a lack of air power. It had proposed that its own aviation corps would be crucial to the Army’s surveillance, reconnaissance, and patrol operations, providing a significant boost to the nation’s defence capabilities.
    ‎
    ‎”The move was further strengthened by the announcement of a $3.2 million investment to construct the first Army aviation hangar at the Bola Ahmed Tinubu International Airport in Minna, Niger State. The Pan-African Business Forum funds the project as part of its Corporate Social Responsibility and it expectedly marks a new era in the Nigerian Army’s operational readiness.
    ‎
    ‎”The new hangar is expected to house an impressive fleet of aerial assets, including 12 MD530 Cayuse Warrior series attack helicopters, 10 Bayrakter TB2 uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs), and 8 Magnus light attack aircraft.
    ‎
    ‎”The Commander-in-Chief, President Tinubu, has since 2023 approved payment for the procurement of 12 MD 530F Cayuse attack helicopters in September.
    ‎
    ‎”The Cayuse Warrior is a proven tactical scout and light attack aircraft, built from the MD 530F design, and valued for its unmatched power, safety, speed, agility, and unparalleled confined-area capabilities.
    ‎
    ‎”The ‘Plus’ version features mission enhancements that include the weapons system, avionics improvements, armour, and increased power performance. The Nigerian selection consists of a complete Instrument Landing System package, spares, pilot and maintainer training, and a simulator. The total value of procurement is about $1.1billion.
    ‎
    ‎”Taken together with previously approved munitions, including 2,000 Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) rockets, these two helicopter fleets represent one of the most substantial US–Nigeria defence collaborations since the A-29 Super Tucano, it added.
    ‎
    ‎End
    ‎