Category: Foreign

(Flowerbudnews.ng) British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is on course to win a majority of 68 in parliament at the December 12 election, according to a model from pollsters YouGov that accurately predicted the 2017 election.

Johnson has pledged to deliver Brexit by January 31 if he wins the election after nearly four years of political crisis that has shocked allies of what was once considered one of the pillars of Western economic and political stability.

His Conservative Party could win 359 seats out of 650, up from 317 in the 2017 general election and the best result for the party since Margaret Thatcher’s 1987 victory, according to the YouGov model, called Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification – or “MRP” for short.

“Our first MRP model projection for the 2019 election suggests that this time round the Conservatives are set for a majority,” said Anthony Wells, director of political and social research at YouGov.

“The swing to the Conservative party is bigger in areas that voted to Leave in 2016, with the bulk of the projected Tory gains coming in the North and the urban West Midlands, as well as former mining seats in the East Midlands.”

The Labour Party is on track to secure 211 seats, down from 262, according to the model. The SNP were on 43, the Lib Dems on 13 and the Brexit Party winning no seats.

The YouGov model crunches data from more than 100,000 interviews over seven days along with demographics, specific constituency circumstances and national statistics to come up with a projection.

It shows the election is now Johnson’s to lose. According to the model, Johnson’s Conservatives would gain 47 seats – 44 of them from Labour, two from the Liberal Democrats and one from the Speaker’s old seat. Labour are on course to not take any new seats.

“Most seats changing hands are ones that Labour won in 2017 that are now set to be taken by the Conservatives,” YouGov said.

“What happens in these constituencies is the most important dynamic in deciding whether Boris Johnson has a majority, and how large it ends up being.”

The Brexit Party are hurting the Conservatives more than Labour, according to the model. Independents are finding it difficult to pick up seats. The model does not point to Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab or Johnson being in danger of losing their seats.

The margins of error in the model put the Conservatives seat projection between 328 and 385, YouGov said, adding that there was still more than sufficient time for people to change their minds before December 12 – the first Christmas election in nearly a century.

In late May 2017, just over a week before the June 8 election, YouGov using the model to project that then Prime Minister Theresa May would lose her majority.

The model, developed by Ben Lauderdale of the London School of Economics and Doug Rivers of Stanford University, was accurate: May did lose her majority, a failure that complicated Brexit and eventually destroyed her premiership.

(Flowerbudnews.ng) At least 58 people, including women and children, were killed after a boat carrying dozens of migrants capsized in the Atlantic Ocean off the West African nation of Mauritania, the UN’s migration agency said.

The perilous sea passage from West Africa to Europe was once a major route for migrants seeking jobs and prosperity. The sinking is one of the deadliest incidents since the mid-2000s when Spain stepped up patrols and fewer boats attempted the journey.

The boat carrying at least 150 people was low on fuel while approaching Mauritania, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) said in a statement.

It said 83 people swam to shore. The survivors were being helped by Mauritanian authorities in the northern city of Nouadhibou, the IOM said.

Survivors said the boat had left the Gambia on November 27.

An unknown number of injured were taken to hospital in Nouadhibou.

“The Mauritanian authorities are very efficiently coordinating the response with the agencies currently present in Nouadhibou,” said Laura Lungarotti, chief of mission in Mauritania with the migration agency.

There was no immediate statement from authorities in the Gambia, a small West African nation from which many migrants set off in hopes of reaching Europe.

Although home to some of the continent’s fastest-growing economies, West Africa is struggling to generate enough jobs for its growing population of young people.

Despite the Gambia’s small size, more than 35,000 Gambian migrants arrived in Europe between 2014 and 2018, according to the IOM.

The 22-year long oppressive rule by then-President Yahya Jammeh severely affected the country’s economy, especially for the Gambia’s young people, prompting some to look to migrating.

Since Jammeh was voted out of office in 2016 and fled into exile in January 2017, European countries have been pushing to return asylum seekers, but the country’s economy has still to recover.

The coastal nation, a popular tourist destination, was shaken earlier this year by the collapse of British travel company Thomas Cook.

At the time, the Gambia’s tourism minister said the government convened an emergency meeting on the collapse, while some Gambians said the shutdown could have a devastating impact on tourism, which contributes more than 30 percent of the country’s GDP.

(Flowerbudnews.ng) (more…)

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Brazil.

During the meeting, Putin praised the strength and potential of bilateral ties between Russia and China.

The 11th meeting of leaders of the BRICS emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – kicked off earlier on Wednesday.