The Lancet has released the most extensively researched study of the Gaza death toll. Using methods based on in-person interviews of 2,000 households, it tallied their deceased and injured family members. The findings indicated that the actual number of deaths (violent and non-violent) between October 7 and January 2025 totaled nearly 90,000.
The categories of violent deaths and non-violent deaths were defined respectively as those directly at the hands of Israeli forces vs. ancillary deaths. The latter is defined as ‘traumatic injuries’ which are by far the largest contributor to mortality…but also endemic and epidemic infectious diseases, maternal and neonatal health, and non-communicable diseases in its calculations. It also included scenarios of epidemic outbreaks of cholera, polio, measles, and meningitis…
(Would the world have stood by, even armed such a genocide against the Israeli people, as they have against Gaza? asks Richard Silverstein. )
The mortality figures could very well be an undercount since the data collectors could not reach all areas of the enclave. This figure represents 3.4% of Gaza’s entire population. In comparison, the Gaza health ministry counted 50,000 (not including non-violent deaths) in the same period.
The Lancet found that the MOH figure was an undercount, and that the actual number was 35% higher.
Extrapolating from this percentage, the total number of deaths from October 7 till January 2026 could be placed closer to 130,000. This is based in part on month by month death toll statistics compiled by the Gaza ministry of health (MOH) and published by Statista. That equals 4.4% of Gaza’s population.
There’s been 2,000 Israelis killed since October 7, over half on that single day. The ratio of Palestinian to Israeli dead is 65 to 1.
An earlier survey by the Max Planck Institute, using different methodology, assessed 78,000 deaths during the same period the Lancet studied. It projected that as of November 2025 (the publication date of the survey), 100,000 Gazans had been killed. It further found that life expectancy was half what it would be without the genocide.
An earlier Lancet finding projected as many as 186,000 deaths as of November 2024. But this figure was extrapolated based on statistics compiled from “recent conflicts” such as the Yemen civil war, the Serbia-Kosovo conflict, Darfur genocide, and Tigray.
Prof. Devi Sridhar, chair of the University of Edinburgh’s global public health program, writing in the Guardian, projected that the death toll could be as high as 335,000. Even if this is potentially an overcount (as it is based on projections from previous conflicts like Serbia-Kosovo, the Darfur genocide, and Tigray), it supports multiple reports that the number of dead is significantly higher than the MOH figures.
Would the world have stood by, even armed such a genocide against the Israeli people, as they have against Gaza? On the contrary, the only way Israel could have killed as many as it did, is through the flow of nearly $25-billion worth of lethal armaments from Western nations-including the US, UK, Germany and France. As the old saying goes: “we couldn’t have done it without you.”
So why does it matter whether the death toll is 70,000, 100,000, 186,000 or 335,000? It’s a genocide regardless of which statistic you use. It should not make a difference whether it’s lower or higher. And if it is higher, will it make it any more likely the world will act to stop it?
Will this new Lancet study influence global public opinion, or that of key Western states providing diplomatic cover and military support to Israel? Thus far, opposition to the genocide has begun in the grassroots and crept upward to the political leaders. With enough pressure, they have taken incremental measures against Israel’s crimes.
Similarly, that tide has slowly risen as the death toll has as well. The higher it rises, the more world leaders are pressured and the more responsive they become. However, this groundswell is a slow, incremental process. Thus, the Lancet paper will impact global opinion as the Palestine solidarity movement and media disseminate it. Though it will never be enough, in and of itself to provoke a decisive break with the Western nations’ indifference.
Whitewashing genocide
There are two states implicated in the genocide, which desperately seek to distract from their culpability: Israel and the US. For the first two years of the conflict, they engaged in genocide denialism, discrediting the Gaza mortality figures. They claimed they were devised by Hamas.
That MOH was not credible, despite its methodology being based on meticulous data-collection. Even former President Joe Biden declared he had “no confidence in the number that the Palestinians are using ” and The National Security Council spokesperson…called the MOH “a front for Hamas.”
Bari Weiss’ pro-Israel Free Press, published an “exposé” claiming a starving Palestinian child whose image was disseminated throughout the world, had a pre-existing medical condition. As if that discredited wider claims of mass starvation due to Israeli siege.
US Congress even barred the State Department from citing the MOH statistics, fearing they would create fraudulent sympathy for Palestinian victims.
Similarly, the long-term campaign against Iran, which led to a joint attack in June and the one anticipated imminently, is a “war of distraction” from the Gaza genocide. It pushes it from the headlines, which enables the catastrophe to fade from the minds of the global public. The less attention focused on Gaza, the less outrage against those perpetrating it.
Similarly, Trump’s Board of Peace is an assemblage of states contrived by the President to support his campaign to ending the war. While he claims he negotiated a ceasefire and the killing is over, facts and Israeli missiles prove otherwise. 2,000 Palestinians have been killed since the so-called ceasefire.
Every Board member joined either because it owes something to, or wants something from Trump. It is not a coalition of the willing, but a coalition of the “wanting”.
The first formal meeting of the group last week purportedly produced pledges of $7-billion towards Gaza reconstruction. Trump added a $10-billion US contribution. This is a drop in the bucket compared to the $80-billion required, according to expert projections.
Further, past conferences in similar circumstances produced pledges from many of the same states, most of which were never fulfilled. Even if the pledges are paid in full, the actual physical reconstruction is totally dependent on Israeli cooperation. Based on past history, this is unlikely; as it is against Israel’s interest to permit it.
The likelihood that the Board of Peace will reconstruct Gaza is about as high the likelihood Israel will stop killing Palestinians.
It is a vanity project, blowing smoke in the world’s eyes; to conceal the corpses piling up like cordwood. It’s designed by Trump to burnish his image as a “peacemaker,” while also distracting from the US role.
As for Israel, Netanyahu is an expert at sleight of hand and a shrewd manipulator, who has deftly exploited the same contrivances. This allows him to skate under the radar and deflect attention. In contrast, the MOH mortality count and Lancet study stand stark testimony to his crimes.