By Kabiru Inuwa Hayinhago
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is widely acknowledged as a master of political calculation, a leader whose career has been shaped by strategic foresight and numerical precision. Yet, in the peculiar case of Kano State, it appears that his trusted political calculator has malfunctioned or worse, had its batteries quietly removed by misguided advisers. The proposed entry of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf into the APC has thrown Tinubu’s Kano strategy into disarray, as prevailing political realities and public sentiment suggest that securing victory in the state through this move would be an uphill, if not impossible, task.
To begin with, unless Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso himself crosses over into the APC, the idea of Abba’s defection remains politically hollow. The Kwankwasiyya movement is not merely a political tendency; it is an ideology anchored in personal loyalty to Kwankwaso. A significant number of its adherents would rather abandon Governor Abba than abandon Kwankwaso. Consequently, if Tinubu hopes to harvest Kano’s votes through Abba alone, he is confronted with a fundamental miscalculation that undermines the entire strategy.
Equally problematic is the emotional and political memory of APC loyalists in Kano, many of whom find forgiveness difficult. The scars from the prolonged legal battles remain fresh particularly the moment when victory seemed assured for Nasiru Gawuna, only for the political inheritance long guarded by party faithful to slip unexpectedly into the hands of an outsider. Such wounds are not easily healed. Even if reconciliation is possible among individuals, extending that forgiveness to Tinubu himself is far more complex. Once again, the political numbers refuse to balance.
Another critical factor lies with the aggrieved traders whose shops were demolished across Kano. Many of them view election day as an opportunity for political retaliation. Should Governor Abba enter the APC, their anger would naturally be redirected toward the party that accommodated their perceived adversary. In such a scenario, rather than gaining votes, the APC risks inheriting resentment, protest ballots, and organised opposition yet another obstacle in Tinubu’s troubled political equation.
Then there are the devoted supporters of Senator Barau Jibrin people like us who have witnessed his steadfast commitment to the APC even in the aftermath of electoral defeat. For years, he held the party together as though it had never fallen. When public pressure mounted for him to contest the governorship and he accepted, only for Abba to ultimately emerge as governor, it was Barau’s calming influence and appeal for patience that prevented a political rupture. Without his intervention, the party might have fractured irreparably. This reality further exposes how fragile Tinubu’s Kano calculations truly are.
Finally, no analysis of Kano politics is complete without confronting the deeply sensitive emirate question: who rightfully occupies the throne Sanusi or Aminu? If Governor Abba joins the APC and Aminu is removed in favour of Sanusi, it would be unrealistic to expect Aminu’s loyalists to cast their ballots for Tinubu. Emirate loyalty in Kano is emotional, historical, and fiercely defended. Ignoring this dimension only deepens the cracks in Tinubu’s already unstable political arithmetic.
In conclusion, while time still offers a narrow window for correction, prudence demands that President Tinubu does not allow night to fall before shelving the idea of Governor Abba’s entry into the APC. In the desperate pursuit of short-term political gain, he risks losing Kano entirely. This is not opposition rhetoric; it is free, sincere, and strategic advice.
